For the secretary of the Ministry of Health, this year climate changes should bring forward the 2025 dengue season; the number of cases this year already exceeds the worst predictions
OR Ministry of Health reported Tuesday 7 that most Brazilian states have already reached the peak dengue this year, but warned that the next season of disease transmission could come earlier than in previous years.
The ministry also stressed that this year’s epidemic period may last longer than expected due to atypical weather conditions, such as the current ones. flushes that have hit some states in the Southeast and Midwest in recent weeks.
Ministry representatives reported this in a press conference for journalists this Tuesday afternoon 22 of the federation’s 27 units have it downward trend in the number of cases of the disease, according to the data collected up to the 18th epidemiological week (which considers the data from January to last Saturday). Four other UFs (Ceará, Maranhão, Pará and Tocantins) are in a stable situation and only one state has an upward trend in registrations: Mato Grosso.
Although the most critical period may have passed, the number of new cases is still high and a next epidemic should not be long in coming. Traditionally, dengue cases increase significantly from March onwards and peak in May, but this year the increase in infections began in January. For next season, however, the threat could arrive even soonerbefore the end of the year, as explained by the ministry’s Secretary of Health and Environmental Surveillance, Ethel Maciel.
“There is a prediction, it’s a mathematical model, that this anticipation that happened in 2024, 2025 will be even earlier because of this wave of high temperatures that we’re facing. The prediction is that that will start this year. And we will have this short preparation time,” said Ethel, who, in other statements, said this increase in cases for the 2025 season could begin as early as November 2024.
The secretary said the ministry will hold a meeting with dengue experts on May 15 and 16 to begin preparing the country for the next epidemic cycle. “We are preparing an event with great experts on the subject to prepare for the next scenario. We have to plan our purchases, what we will do. This year we had a purchase of insecticides, for example, 400% higher than last year,” he said. explained.
Ethel also said that the atypical dengue scenario could become the norm this year. “We understand that the uncertainty scenarios, given climate change, will have a much greater impact than expected. This has been a very different year and it may be that this different year is the one we will face in the near future,” she said.
The number of dengue cases in 2024 already exceeds the worst predictions
The Ministry of Health also published the updated toll of dengue cases in the country this year: 4.5 million probable infections. The number exceeds the worst prediction made by the ministry itself for this year’s epidemic. Last year, the federal government estimated as many as 4.2 million cases of the disease in 2024.
“We already knew that climate change would play a big role, but we didn’t have the scale. Temperatures were much higher than expected last year. This model was done in September last year, so we have several changes. They are mathematical models, it is essential that the public understands that these are mathematical predictions that depend on the climate, on different factors. The change in these factors ends up interfering with the numbers, and that’s what we see here,” Ethel explained.
Also according to the ministry’s report, 2,336 deaths due to the disease have already been recorded this year. Another 2,439 are under investigation. Both the number of cases and fatalities in 2024 are records. The worst epidemic in history, until then, occurred in 2015, with 1.6 million probable cases. And the worst year in terms of number of deaths was 2023, with 1,094 deaths.
Despite the worrying scenario, the uptake of the dengue vaccine is still low. Ministry data shows that only 34% of the 2.6 million doses sent to states were registered in the federal system applied in early May.
Source: Terra

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