For the first time, global temperatures are more likely to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming over the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Wednesday.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean the world would exceed the long-term warming threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
With a 66% chance of temporarily reaching 1.5°C by 2027, “it is the first time in history that we are more likely to exceed 1.5°C,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-term forecasts at the British Met Office Hadley Centre. , who worked on the most recent annual global update for the WMO’s climate decade.
Last year’s report put the odds at around 50-50.
Partly responsible for the increase in the possibility of reaching 1.5°C is an El Niño weather pattern expected to develop over the next few months. During this natural phenomenon, the warmer waters of the tropical Pacific warm the atmosphere above, raising global temperatures.
El Niño “will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” WTO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a news release.
The likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has increased over time. Between 2017 and 2021, for example, scientists estimated only a 10% chance of reaching 1.5°C.
Source: Terra
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