The electoral tribunal is not expected to close the trial this Thursday and reserves three sessions for the former president’s case
SÃO PAULO AND BRASÍLIA – The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) begins this Thursday 22, at 9 am, the judgment that will define the political future of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and the entire right-wing camp in the next elections. accused of abuse of political power AND improper use of media, the former president could lose his political rights and not stand for election for eight years if convicted. That is: he would be ineligible until October 2030, opening a dispute for the Bolsonarista estate. The trial is not expected to end on Thursday.
The background of the action is the meeting convened by Bolsonaro, then president, with foreign ambassadors at the Palácio da Alvorada, in July 2022. At the meeting, without presenting evidence, he attacked the Brazilian voting system, electronic ballot boxes and raised suspicions about the electoral process. The president’s speeches were broadcast by TV Brasil.
Perpetrator of the action, the PDT claims that Bolsonaro used the event to campaign, which would attract the jurisdiction of the electoral justice. The party’s lawyers avoided submitting requests that were not considered really necessary. The strategy was used to speed up the outcome as much as possible and shield the trial from possible questions from the former president’s defence, which could prolong the procedure.
A Bolsonaro’s defense he affirms that the meeting did not have an electoral character, because it was organized as head of the federal executive branch and was inserted in the context of the “institutional dialogue”. The lawyers also argue that the statements were part of a “debate of ideas” to improve the voting system and were driven by the former president’s “personal conviction”.
The TSE has reserved three sessions for judging (June 22, 27 and 29), which indicates that voting is not expected to end this Thursday. All seven ministers must read their votes, due to the weight of the sentence, which is considered historic. The rapporteur’s vote, Minister Benedito Goncalves, has more than 400 pages. The full text has already been shared with colleagues.
If the former president is declared ineligible by the TSE, he will be prevented from participating in the 2024, 2026 and 2028 elections, but will still have the opportunity to participate in the 2030 elections, according to electoral law experts consulted by the Stadium. This is because the period of ineligibility is counted from the last election held, i.e. October 2, 2022. Since the first round of the 2030 election is scheduled for October 6, Bolsonaro has already fulfilled the punishment. The former president, however, would still be ineligible at the time the candidacy is registered and would have to fight in court to run. In seven years Bolsonaro will be 75 years old.
Bolsonaro’s chances of getting rid of the sentence are considered remote. Find out why in four steps:
1. The composition of the TSE
The Court lacks Bolsonaro’s allies. The action was only remanded after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appointed two new TSE ministers: lawyers Floriano de Azevedo Marquis Neto AND Andre Ramos Tavares. Both are close to Alexandre de Moraes, president of the TSE and considered by allies of the former president as one of his greatest executioners.
At least five votes against the former president are expected behind the scenes: that of Corregidor Benedito Gonçalves, and those of ministers Alexandre de Moraes, Cármen Lúcia, André Ramos Tavares and Floriano de Azevedo. Minister Raul Araújo’s vote is unknown. He may have “switched sides,” according to those involved in the trial, and voted to convict. Minister Kassio Nunes Marques, in this scenario, would cast the only vote in favor of Bolsonaro.
On Saturday 17, the former president himself acknowledged that “the indications are not good” for the Tse trial. However, he said he was “quiet”.
2. Opinion of the Public Prosecutor
OR Electoral Prosecutor of the Republic defended the former president’s conviction. The deputy attorney general for the elections, Paulo Gustavo Gonet Branco, underlined the abuse of political power and the abuse of the media. The argument is that Bolsonaro used the public office and facility to “discredit the legitimacy of the voting system.”
“The distortions and falsehoods repeated by the suspect Jair Bolsonaro during the meeting with the ambassadors and the insinuations according to which the Electoral Justice intends to favor the opposing candidate have unduly led a part of the electorate to distrust the electoral system”, it is said reads in an excerpt of the opinion.
3. The order of voting
A request for a view – more time for analysis – could give the former president survival and is not excluded. Bolsonaro’s interlocutors hope they can count on the loyalty of Kassio Nunes Marques.
A procedural issue could make life difficult for the former president: Nunes Marques is one of the last to vote, which increases the chances of a majority being formed. In this case the embarrassment of suspending a definite judgment is greater, above all considering that the other judges can anticipate the vote.
After reading the report, the demonstrations of the PDT, the defense of Bolsonaro and the Electoral Public Prosecutor voted in order: Benedito Gonçalves (speaker), Raul Araújo, Floriano de Azevedo Marques, André Ramos Tavares, Kassio Nunes Marques, Cármen Lucia and Alexandre de Moraes.
4. Evidence
In addition to recording the meeting itself, the TSE heard from people involved in organizing the meeting with the ambassadors, such as former ministers Anderson Torres (Justice), Carlos Alberto Franco França (Foreign Relations) and Ciro Nogueira (Civil House). .
The coup seized from Federal Police Anderson Torres’ home was also included as evidence in the lawsuit. The draft envisaged an intervention by the president and members of the Ministry of Defense in the TSE to nullify the election result.
Source: Terra
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