Lula’s effort to get closer to two partners who could soon leave power

The Brazilian president attends a meeting between the leaders of Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean in Brussels.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) began his 14th international trip in six months in government this week.

The destination this time is Brussels, where he is participating in a meeting of the European Union (EU) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which will be attended by dozens of heads of state from both regions.

On the sidelines of the meeting, on Tuesday (7/18), Lula will participate in a meeting with progressive leaders of Europe and Latin America, organized by the European Socialist Party.

The invitation to Lula to participate in the EU-CELAC meeting came from the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, of the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOL). Spain currently presides over the European Union.

Since the government launched international diplomatic efforts under the informal slogan “Brazil is back” – to mark the opposition to the government of Jair Bolsonaro, which according to analysts gave little priority to foreign policy – Lula has sought a rapprochement with two international leaders who do so soon may be out of power: Pedro Sánchez, in Spain, and Alberto Fernandez, in Argentina.

Pedro Sanchez

Last month Spain assumed the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. And this happens at a time when the European Union and Mercosur could be close to the final adjustments of a free trade agreement that has been under discussion since 1999. Brazil presides – until December – the Mercosur, also on a rotating basis.

Lula sought a rapprochement with Sánchez. The Brazilian’s first trip to Europe after taking office included Spain in April.

The Spanish newspaper El País highlighted the ideological affinity between the two leaders. “Pedro Sánchez is almost as euphoric as Lula over the victory of the historic Brazilian unionist leader and the defeat of the ultra-right Jair Bolsonaro”, reads the newspaper.

On the occasion, Sánchez said that the coincidence of the Brazilian presidencies in Mercosur and the Spanish presidency in the EU was an “excellent opportunity” for concrete progress to be made in trade agreements.

The Brazilian government had initially said that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin would attend the EU-CELAC summit in Brussels. However, after a telephone conversation with Sánchez, Lula announced that he would personally attend the meeting.

The single most obvious point of contention between Lula and Sánchez is the issue of Ukraine. In the press conference they held together, Lula said it was useless to discuss “who is right, who is wrong”. Sánchez, on the other hand, affirmed, together with the Brazilian, that “in this war there is an aggressor and a victim of an attack”, adding that the aggressor is Russia.

Despite the rapprochement with Sánchez, experts indicate that there may be uncertainty about the rapprochement between the European Union and Mercosur, precisely because of Spain.

“The early elections in Spain on 23 July risk undermining Madrid’s effectiveness in guiding business during its presidency of the EU Council”, analyzes the consultancy group Eurasia Group.

In May, Sánchez preempted December’s Spanish election, which will now take place next weekend. According to political analysts, the socialist leader’s goal is “to thwart a change in the political cycle that favors the right”.

The right won several victories in May’s municipal elections, raising fears on the left of a major ideological shift in the country.

Sánchez is running for re-election, but the leader in some polls is right-wing Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the Popular Party. The growth of the far-right Vox party – and Feijóo’s conservative speech to win over these voters – has raised fears among the Spanish left.

While there could be a political shift in Spain this month, with the election of a leader with no ideological ties to Lula, experts say it’s unclear whether that would have an immediate effect on negotiations between the European Union and Mercosur. For now, the main opponents of the negotiations are France and Ireland.

Alberto Fernández

Another international leader with whom Lula has a great affinity — and also vital in relations between the European Union and Mercosur — is the president of Argentina, Alberto Fernández.

Argentina was Lula’s first international destination this year when he took office. The January visit served precisely to announce Brazil’s return to the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), a group that the country had abandoned during the government of former President Jair Bolsonaro in 2021.

The Argentine leader has announced that he will not run for re-election in October this year. His term will end on December 10.

With three months to go before the elections, Argentina’s political future is up in the air. Four candidates appear in the polls today: Sergio Massa (economy minister supported by Fernández), Patricia Bulrich (opponent linked to former president Maurício Macri), Javier Milei (far right) and Horacio Larreta (mayor of Buenos Aires, also linked to Macri). Of these candidates, Lula’s greatest ideological affinity is with Massa.

squid in Europe

In Brussels this week, CELAC returns to hold a summit with the European Union after an eight-year hiatus.

The central themes of the summit are: climate change and just and sustainable transition; inclusive and fair digital transition; citizens’ safety, social cohesion and the fight against transnational crime; and trade and sustainable development and post-pandemic recovery.

The war in Ukraine may feature in the final declaration of the summit, but there is no consensus between the parties on a common position.

Lula arrived in Brussels on Sunday (7/16) and has his first engagements this Monday (7/17). He had a meeting with the president of the European Commission, Ursula Von Der Leyen, and is expected to participate in a European Union-Latin America business forum.

Throughout Monday, he attends the EU-Celac summit and has meetings with the leaders of Barbados (Premier Mia Mottley), Belgium (Premier Alexander de Croo), the European Parliament (Roberta Netsika) and the King of Belgium, Philippe – as well as a gala dinner in the evening.

On Tuesday (7/18), Lula will hold a meeting of progressive leaders with heads of state of Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Portugal, the Dominican Republic, Germany, Denmark and Spain, according to Itamaraty. The meeting is organized by former Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, who chairs the European Socialist Party.

On the same day, he participates in the plenary session of the summit and has bilateral meetings with the leaders of Sweden (Premier Ulf Kristersson) and Denmark (Premier Mette Frederiksen). He should return to Brazil at the end of Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

Itamaraty said he does not expect significant progress on the Mercosur-European Union deal this week, as the summit will serve to address broader issues affecting all of Latin America and the Caribbean.

Currently, Mercosur member countries are discussing a proposed response prepared by Brazil to the most recent European proposal. Only after a consensus has been reached in Mercosur – which should take place outside the summit deadline – should negotiations with Europe evolve.

The European Union and Mercosur concluded a trade agreement in June 2019. However, this agreement has not yet been approved by each of the member countries. With the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the European Union has signaled that it will prioritize closing trade deals with other parts of the world as part of its strategy to seek alternative partners to Russia.

But the negotiation for a definitive agreement approved by all is difficult, above all due to the resistance of countries such as France and Ireland, which fear losses of their national producers with openings in the agricultural sector. Europeans have raised environmental concerns with Mercosur countries. Lula said this month that the South American bloc would not relinquish control of government purchasing, which is a way to embolden domestic businesses while shielding them from competition from abroad.

Source: Terra

Rose

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