The market improved its expectations for the growth of the Brazilian economy in 2023 and 2024, leaving inflation forecasts unchanged, showed the Focus survey released by the central bank on Monday.
The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, showed that the expectation of expansion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year has improved by 0.05 percentage points, reaching 2.24%. For 2024, the increase in the estimate was 0.02 points, to 1.30%.
At the same time, the weekly survey of a hundred economists showed that there has been no change in the inflation scenario, after a series of reductions, with the HICP rise calculated at 4.95% and 3% respectively. 92% this year and next.
However, for 2025 the inflation projection has eased to 3.55%, from 3.60%. Also for 2026 there were no changes and the increase in the HICP is calculated at 3.50%.
The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024, 2025 and 2026 it is 3.00%, again with a margin of tolerance of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
Furthermore, the specialists consulted have not changed their estimates for the Selic base interest rate, which continues to be calculated at 12.0% at the end of this year and 9.50% in 2024, compared to the current 13 .75%.
They also continue to see a 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), in early August.
Source: Terra
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