The area has long been relegated to the background by Europeans. The Russian invasion of Ukraine also highlighted the clash of different interests in this part of the world: since the end of the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, attacks on merchant ships by both sides have increased. Russia has been blocking the deal since mid-July, stepping up shelling of Ukrainian ports and threatening to attack merchant ships. Ukraine, for its part, has declared six ports on the Russian Black Sea coast an area at risk of war and threatens to carry out retaliatory attacks against Russian merchantmen, tankers and port facilities. For both states, the Black Sea is, so to speak, the gateway to the world, and its strategic and economic importance is immense. But other neighboring countries, notably NATO members Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania, also have concrete interests in this inland sea between Europe and Asia.
First area of Russian interest
Russia has always considered the Black Sea to be within its sphere of influence. Already during the tsarist empire and later in Soviet times, the sea formed the southern flank of the great power. Even today it is seen as a springboard from which Russia can assert its influence in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, North Africa and Southern Europe. The Black Sea also gives Russia access to more distant countries where it is militarily active, such as Syria and Libya. In the Syrian city of Tartus, Russia has its own naval base.
Russia’s military heart in the region is the Black Sea Fleet, which has had its headquarters in Sevastopol since 1793. The port city on the Crimean peninsula, which has been annexed by Ukraine since 2014, has special significance for Moscow. Because it has one of the rare ice-free deep-water ports in Russia that can be used by the military even in winter.
How committed Moscow is to maintaining its hegemony over the Black Sea region is shown by the many regional conflicts that have been deliberately fueled in recent years. As a result, while Russia owns only about 10% of the entire Black Sea coast under international law, it currently controls about a third of the coast as it has continued to expand the areas under its influence.
In 2008, Moscow intervened in Georgia and established two internationally unrecognized republics loyal to Russia, including Abkhazia on the eastern Black Sea coast; in 2014 Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula and since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022 it has conquered and occupied large parts of southern Ukraine on the Black Sea.
The Black Sea is also of immense importance to Russia in terms of trade. Most of Moscow’s exports of grains, fertilizers and other products go through the area’s ports. The trade route through the Black Sea is also gaining importance because it can send goods to countries that have not joined Western sanctions against Russia.
Ukraine: vital trade route
If the Black Sea is already of great importance for Russia as a trade route, this is even more so for Ukraine. In peacetime, Ukraine shipped more than 50% of its total exports through its largest Black Sea port, Odessa. Until the grain deal with Russia expired in mid-July, mainly grains were shipped for the world market. Because the Black Sea region is also considered one of the largest grain granaries in the world. Before the start of the war, Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 60% of world exports of sunflower oil, almost 24% of wheat and about 19% of barley.
The fact that Russia and Ukraine are now increasingly targeting enemy merchant ships is directly related to this. Both countries would be hit hard economically by a slowdown in cargo traffic in the Black Sea. And even though Ukraine has diversified its export routes under the impact of the war – only 40% of Ukraine’s grain is exported via the Black Sea , the rest by land through the EU – Kiev will continue to depend on an export of goods by sea through a long time.
Europe: corridor between political opponents
So, as Russia and Ukraine vie for north-south trade routes, the east-west connection is becoming increasingly important for Brussels. With Romania and Bulgaria, the EU has two members on the Black Sea coast and association agreements have already been concluded with Georgia and Ukraine.
In Brussels, the Black Sea is increasingly seen as an important corridor for the transport of goods and energy between Asia and Europe. As Europe wants to become increasingly independent of Russian oil and gas, attention is increasingly focused on the producing countries of the Caucasus, especially Azerbaijan. Baku exports oil and gas to Europe through Georgia and Türkiye.
The route through the Black Sea borders Russia to the north and Iran to the south and is therefore of particular strategic importance for the Europeans, who have imposed severe economic sanctions on these two countries.
Therefore, NATO also has strong security policy interests in the Black Sea. From 1997 until the start of the war in Ukraine, the Western military alliance held major maneuvers in the area every year. However, only three NATO navies have a constant presence in the region: Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey. This dates back to the Montreux Agreement, concluded in 1936, which guarantees Turkey full sovereignty over the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, the only outlet from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.
Soon after the war started in February 2022, Turkey blocked the passage of all warships, not just Russian ones, so the balance of power of naval forces in the Black Sea has been preserved since then.
Türkiye: balance as a goal
Turkey therefore has a key geostrategic position, as it controls access to the Black Sea, which is guaranteed by international treaties. Ankara is the most important NATO member in the Black Sea region and sees itself as a hub for trade between Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East.
Turkey is keen to secure its leadership role in the region vis-à-vis NATO. The relationship with Russia is particularly important for Ankara. Both in Ankara and in Moscow, the Black Sea is seen as an absolutely priority area of interest. Turkey is closely monitoring that the balance of power in the Black Sea region, developed over decades, is largely maintained. The Montreux Treaty offers Ankara the opportunity to exclude other actors – including NATO – in the Black Sea region. And this, in turn, also pleases Moscow.
Source: Terra
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