Analysts at BB Investimentos estimate that Ibovespa has the conditions to offer one of the highest returns among asset classes in 2024, setting a target price of 141 thousand points for it at the end of next year.
“Not only because of the high level of discount compared to the stock markets of central economies and emerging countries, but also because of the impetus that the monetary policy environment in Brazil and abroad can provide,” they said in a report this Monday .
According to Victor Penna, Wesley Bernabé and the company’s research team, the global context remains complex, with a loss of growth momentum, which suggests lower visibility of the results of companies more exposed to commodities.
“On the other hand, this backdrop could be helpful in reducing Treasury yields…, promoting greater appetite for risky assets globally,” they said.
They add that stock market impulses in interest rate cutting cycles go through two phases, the first immediate, more linked to the gradual reduction in companies’ cost of capital, monitored throughout 2023.
The second, they say, is more long-term, linked to the decompression of companies’ financial results and driven by greater appetite in the credit market, the basic scenario for next year.
According to analysts, the baseline scenario for Ibovespa in 2024 considers a less bold context of expanding results for the raw materials segments. Compared to Friday’s close, it represents a potential increase of 11%.
In a more optimistic perspective, in which oil and iron ore prices contribute to the strengthening of company results and the monetary policy framework evolves positively without surprises, they see the Ibovespa at 153 thousand points.
“If our expectations were missed, the model output would point to 132,000 points, which would lead to a negative equity risk premium,” they said.
BB’s stock selection for 2024 consists of B3, BTG Pactual, Cyrela, Direcional, Grupo Mateus, Itaú Unibanco, Jalles Machado, JBS, Lojas Quero Quero, Magazine Luiza, Petrobras, Sabesp, Isa Cteep, Vale, Vibra and Weg .
Source: Terra
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