Last Friday (08), the Ibovespa it closed the session with a drop of 0.99%, to 127,070 points. In the cumulative result of the week, the main market index fell by 1.63%. One of the reasons that made Ibovespa collapse was the reaction of the market, in particular Petrobras (PETR4) after the state company did not announce special dividends. BRF stock (BRFS3) had the best performance of the week.
The board of directors of Petrobras (PETR4) decided to maintain dividends according to the minimum formula (2.9 billion dollars, 3% yield), proposing to allocate the residual profit of the year (8.9 billion dollars) to the newly created capital remuneration reserve creation.
The news had a negative repercussion, leading to a decline of 10.57% in preferred shares (PETR4) and 10.37% in ordinary shares (PETR3), resulting in a loss of approximately R$55 billion worth of state company market. and an escape of foreign flows.
According to Felipe Moura, analyst at Finacap Investimentos, on Friday 90% of fall of Ibovespa came from Petrobras. “And if we look at the other stocks, the dynamics of the last few weeks continues, very much in line with the balance sheets, with the market now responding more to the micro than the macro, with no new developments regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest cuts,” says Moura .
Biggest Ibovespa increases of the week
- BRF (BRFS3): +12.31%
- IRB (IRBR3): +10.28%
- Nature (NTCO3): +5.78%
- Hapvid (HAPV3): +4.30%
- Yduq (YDUQ3): +3.75%
During the week, actions of BRF (BRFS3) stood out positively, driven by Barclays bank, which raised its recommendation on the company’s ADRs (American Depositary Receipts).
In turn, the IRB (IRBR3) saw a significant increase, after BTG Pactual positively revised its recommendations.
Already the Cogna (COGN3) recorded a significant increase due to the update of the projections by XP, which raised the recommendation from neutral to buy and increased the target price.
Biggest Ibovespa drop of the week
- Casas Bahia (BHIA3): -16.56%
- Petrobras ON (PETR3): -10.26%
- Vibra (VBBR3): -10.04%
- Pão de Açúcar (PCAR3): -9.28%
- Petrobras PN (PETR4): -8.66%
During the week, actions of Casas Bahia (BHIA3) recorded the biggest losses, reversing the previous week’s gains. The reason was an agreement with financial institutions to renegotiate the terms of their debts, which amount to R$1.5 billion, for payment over three years.
Petrobras (PETR4), as mentioned, also had a significant decline last Friday, negatively affecting Ibovespa’s performance. The decline was motivated by the state-owned company’s decision not to pay special dividends for the final quarter of 2024, instead allocating the resources to the profit reserve.
Although it reported six times profit in the fourth quarter of 2023, shares of Vibrates (VBBR3) it too collapsed, largely associated with a recurring EBITDA margin of R$163 per cubic meter, below its market peers.
Already the Sugar Loaf (PCAR3)the decline reflects the continuation of the downward trend of retail assets in general due to the macroeconomic scenario in Brazil.
“The market tries to evaluate the right price of company shares and take advantage of asset trading opportunities. Faced with the downtrend, the number of short selling operations increases, generating a flow of sellers that deepens the declines. This movement can be demonstrated by measuring the rental prices of shares, which continue to rise,” explained Felipe Castro, capital market specialist and partner at Matriz Capital.
Ibovespa also reflected global events
The pressure on Ibovespa is also due to global events, especially after the divergent data from the US labor market.
Investors’ attention was focused on the publication of the economic data most awaited by the market, especially the exchange rate one: data on the United States labor market, Payroll.
U.S. jobs data beat expectations in February, with the creation of 275,000 jobs outside of the agricultural sector, above analysts’ forecasts of 125,000 to 260,000 new jobs. This scenario could complicate the decision to start cutting interest rates in the United States.
Additionally, at a hearing in the country’s House of Representatives, Jerome Powell acknowledged recent progress in fighting inflation, but said the Fed is waiting for more indicators to be sure the country is moving toward price stability in sustainable way.
Powell added that the monetary authority may act more cautiously in the next steps due to the strength of activity and the labor market.
What does the market expect from Ibovespa next week?
According to the Broadcast Bolsa Thermometer, the market is more conservative when it comes to very short-term stock performance.
Among the participants, 37.50% predict an increase, 37.50% a decrease and 25% believe in the stability of the Ibovespa next week. In the previous survey, 50% expected progress, 25% expected a decline and 25% believed in stability.
Source: Terra
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