Airbus has raised its forecast for jet aircraft demand over the next 20 years as many airlines modernise their long-haul fleets and emerging Asian economies invest more in the sector.
The world’s largest aircraft maker predicted in an annual report that its global fleet will more than double over the next two decades, reaching 48,230 planes.
Airbus expects deliveries of 42,430 new airplanes across the industry over the next 20 years, including 41,490 passenger aircraft, with both figures up 4% from the previous estimate.
The report comes as Airbus’s single-aisle A321XLR jet is expected to receive certification in the coming days. Meanwhile, Boeing is developing a longer-range version of the 737 MAX.
After a prolonged lull, demand for twin-aisle aircraft is accelerating sharply as airlines renew capacity, with the most significant changes in Airbus’ forecasts affecting the long-haul fleet commonly made up of these aircraft types.
Airbus raised its forecast for total twin-aisle demand by 9% to 8,920 units, led by double-digit increases in South America and North America. For the Middle East, one of the largest markets for wide-body aircraft due to its huge hubs, Airbus cut its forecast by 2% due to reports of excess capacity.
The forecast for total wide-body jet demand includes 940 large freighters, up 2% from the previous scenario.
Demand in the single-aisle passenger aircraft segment, such as the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 series, which have short- to medium-range ranges, was revised up 3 percent to 33,510 units.
Airbus’ forecast is based on economic estimates that suggest that 1.7 billion people will join the middle class, with disposable income for air travel, over the next 20 years.
“We see particularly strong growth in Asia and the Middle East, driven primarily by India and China,” said Bob Lange, head of market analysis and forecasting at Airbus. “China’s domestic traffic will surpass that of the United States,” he added.
Source: Terra
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