Will Deadpool and Vulture be the box office success predicted? An expert will answer

Much anticipated by fans of the Marvel Cinematic Universe who haven’t had a movie to enjoy since The Marvels was released last November, Deadpool & Wolverine finally hit French cinemas on Wednesday. But did viewers make the trip for the first day of surgery?

Yes, between midnight showings and the day of July 24, Sean Levy’s film recorded 265,475 admissions. Which is way better than most recent superhero movies and also more than Deadpool 2 (216,242) and Logan (172,409).

Return of the MCU

“This debut marks the return of the MCU to more than 250,000 first-day logins (which has not been done since Thor: Love and Thunder). That’s pretty exciting, for a movie with less of a mainstream audience (a shortage especially of young people and women) than Thor and obviously less than Spider-Man.“, explains Emilien Robert, director of business intelligence at The Boxoffice Company France.

Deadpool & Wolverine being restricted to children under 12 is clearly not for everyone, which in fact diminishes its potential in theaters, where many Marvel films benefit from a fairly young audience. Despite this, the feature film, which reunites Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, can boast of having “A very good average of 75 entries per session on this first day“. The average number of entries per session is “The best indicator of the actual performance of the film“.

In terms of superhero movies over the past two years, only Black Panther 2 (78), Doctor Strange 2 (101) and Spider-Man: No Way Home (154) have done better. And looking at the 2024 numbers, the film has the second-best opening in raw figures and the fourth-best average ahead of Dune 2 or, say, The Count of Monte Cristo. It’s still ahead of A Little Something Extra (145), Vice-Versa 2 (82) and Planet of the Apes: The New Kingdom (82).

“One of the most reassuring elements at this point is AlloCiné’s rating. In the most fanatical community (those who celebrate from day one) there is enthusiasm.“, shares Emilien Robert. And continues: “Starting in 2022, we see a real downward trend in the ratings (and therefore viewership) for Marvel movies, averaging 2.9 from 2022 to 3.7 from 2017 to 2019.“

With a 3.9 rating to date, Deadpool & Wolverine has pushed the bar well. It remains to be seen how the ratings will fare after the first weekend, which is likely to be.1 million to 1.3 million records“.

Spider-Man: No Way Home score unattainable?

“The whole challenge will be to know whether the film can reach a wider audience (women and children). Which can be complicated, especially with good competition for these goals (direct 2 vs Despicable Me 4 for children and families, as well as The Count of Monte Cristo, which is aimed at a wider audience), even if the latter already has a few weeks of operation behind them“, – specifies the specialist on this topic.

before warming up: “Now, having said that, the film stands relatively alone: border countries Will be on the same target in two weeks (geek/youngsters) and Alien: Romulus in 3 weeks. This leaves him with the first two weeks to collect the maximum number of entries on his target.“

“The film should attract 3.5 million or even 4 million attendees. However, there remains a question mark about the effect of the Paris Games, even if we think that the overall impact should be very measured.“- adds Emilien Robert.

It’s almost certain that Deadpool & Wolverine”It’s hard to get 7.3 million for No Way Home, for example, which is much more mainstream than Deadpool. But it’s clearly a nice breath of fresh air for Marvel“, he concludes.

After this analysis, are you interested in the 10 best French Marvel movies? It is here :

1. Spider-Man: No Way Home – 7,387,844 entries
2. Avengers: Endgame – 6,944,909 entries
3. Spider-Man – 6,459,120 entries
4. Spider-Man 3 – 6,336,433 entries
5. Spider-Man 2 – 5,335,224 entries
6. Avengers: Infinity War – 5,141,500 records
7. The Avengers – 4,505,704 entries
8. Iron Man 3 – 4,386,939 records
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron – 4,331,356 records
10. Deadpool – 3,763,671 entries

And as a bonus, the X-Men box office in France:

1. Deadpool – 3,763,671 entries
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past – 3,289,100 entries
3. X-Men 2 – 2,825,132 entries
4. X-Men: The Last Stand – 2,824,519 entries
5. Deadpool 2 – 2,600,250 entries
6. Logan – 2,333,382 entries
7. X-Men: Apocalypse – 2,161,522 records
8. X-Men: Beginning – 2,096,575 records
9. Wolverine: Battle of the Undying – 1,989,081 records
10. X-Men Origins: Wolverine – 1,958,789 entries
11. X-Men – 1,862,436 entries
12. X-Men: Dark Phoenix – 1,403,901 records
13. New Mutants – 372,640 entries

If Deadpool & Wolverine probably won’t be Marvel’s biggest success in France, it has every chance to be in the top 3 films of the X-Men universe and maybe even surpass the first movie about the mercenary in the red suit. To be continued!

Deadpool & Wolverine is in theaters now.