The majority of ministers have already voted to invalidate the pension reform measure adopted by 13 units of the Federation that expands the contribution base of public employees and pensioners
BRASÍLIA – The impact that states that have adapted their social security systems will have to bear Supreme Federal Court (STF) confirm the demolition of one of the sections of the reform approved by Congress in 2019. Although the ruling is suspended, the majority of ministers have already voted to invalidate the expansion of the calculation base for pensioners’ and retirees’ social security contributions, adopted so far by 13 units of the Federation. As the State/Broadcast As revealed on Tuesday 17, in the case of the Union, if the government is prevented from activating this trigger, it will lose the possibility of reducing the actuarial deficit of the Social Security System (RPPS) by R$ 55.1 billion.
The fiscal bomb for states, whose regimes are already largely in deficit, was warned in a memorial to the STF drafted by the National College of Attorneys General of the States and the Federal District (Conpeg), to which Estadão/Broadcast had access. In the document, the states ask the Supreme Court to declare the constitutionality of the Social Security reform. “In many states, the reform of state pensions represents the most important source of long-term tax savings.”
Concern over the accounts has led governors to personally seek out ministers. On August 21, the date of the Conpeg memorial, the heads of the Executive of ten states made a “tour” of the offices to present the impacts and try to reverse the majority formed to reverse parts of the reform.
Risk of account collapse
With the unfavorable score of six votes on the expansion of the calculation base, the Federation departments argue that the threatened rule prevents the collapse of state social security systems. And the risk does not stop there. According to Conpeg, if the section were removed, several states would experience an “immediate exceeding” of the spending limit for personnel. For example, the reversal of the reform already carried out by Mato Grosso do Sul puts it “immediately” on alert.
The financial situation of the States is a matter of concern not only for the governors, but also for the Union, which often needs to help local administrations. This is the case of the debt renegotiation project of these entities that, according to experts, will increase public debt.
Analyzing the situation of 21 federal entities, Conpeg drew attention to the fact that more than 80% have a social security deficit and almost 25% of the total exceeds 10% of net current income (RCL). Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro are in the most delicate situation since they allocate more than 25% of the RCL exclusively to finance social security systems.
Understand what can be reversed
The Gaucho case is also highlighted because it was one of the cases that most reduced the minimum contribution threshold for inactive people. In other words, a portion of inactive employees and retirees who did not contribute to the regime began to contribute with rates starting at 9%. Therefore, if the rule to expand the calculation base is overturned, there will be an actuarial impact on the state pension of R$ 57.860 billion, the largest on the list. The annual financial impact is R$ 1.118 billion. The sum of the financial effects over a period of one year amounts to R$ 5.1 billion for all entities that have activated this trigger.
The second state that would be most affected is Piauí, with an actuarial loss of R$ 12.9 billion. It is followed by the Federal District, with R$ 12.7 billion. The spreadsheet was formulated by the National Committee of Secretaries of State and Federal District Finance (Comsefaz). Minas, Bahia, Ceará, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Paraná, Rondônia and Santa Catarina have also expanded the calculation base. For Rio Grande do Norte, which is among the 13 states that have adhered to the rule, there are no indications of impacts.
Minas and Rio Grande do Sul have also adopted the progressive rate, which is also contested by the STF. In this case, the process is in parity. The standard has also been adopted in São Paulo and Roraima. If the section were considered demolished, the annual financial impact for the States would be R$ 1.7 billion, with an actuarial effect of R$ 30.3 billion. In the case of the Union, as revealed by Broadcast, the possible reversal of this section could increase the actuarial deficit of the Social Security System (RPPS) by R$ 73.8 billion.
In Rio Grande do Sul, there is an isolated situation where the adoption of this rule has reduced Social Security revenues. The measure was taken as a form of social justice by taxing more those who earn more, Conpeg emphasized. “Although the progressivity of the rates has the potential to give effectiveness and refinement to the principle of contributory capacity and represents an important element of fiscal justice, the budgetary and actuarial impact of this measure is not sufficient to overcome, for example, the deficit of the RS tax regime itself,” the collegian noted to highlight the importance of the rule to broaden the calculation base.
Source: Terra
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