Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) is closest in voting intentions to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the 2026 elections if former president Jair Bolsonaro continues to be prevented from running, according to the scenarios tested in the research released Tuesday by the MDA institute of the National Transport Confederation (CNT).
According to the poll, Michelle did better than influencer Pablo Marçal (PRTB) and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), other right-wing names included in the MDA scenarios.
In the scenario with the former first lady, Lula leads with 34.1% of voting intentions, while Michelle has 20.5% and Marçal 14.1%. Former minister Ciro Gomes (PDT) appears with 9.3% and the current Planning Minister, Simone Tebet (MDB), has 9.2%.
When the governor of São Paulo runs, Lula remains in the lead with 35.2%, while Marçal has 16.9%, Tarcísio 15%, Tebet 9.5% and Ciro 9.4%.
In the event that Bolsonaro himself appears in the dispute, Lula appears with 35.2% and the former president with 32.2%, while Marçal with 8.4%, Tebet with 8% and Ciro with 6.2%.
The poll’s margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.
Bolsonaro was declared ineligible until 2030 by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) over a meeting he held with ambassadors when he was president to make false accusations against the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system ahead of the 2022 elections.
The poll also asked voters who consider themselves right-wing and center-right who would be the best presidential candidate for the 2026 elections, and 47.9% chose Bolsonaro, while 11.4% indicated Marçal, 10 .5% chose Tarcísio and 5.1% chose Michelle. .
In the event that Bolsonaro did not run, Tarcísio would have been indicated as the ideal candidate by 22.6%, Michelle by 21.9% and Marçal by 20.3%.
Among those interviewed who declare themselves to be left-wing and centre-left, Lula is the preferred candidate with 60.2%. In the event that the president decides not to run again, the name of the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), is considered ideal by 31.3%, while 17.5% mentioned the federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL-SP ) and 15% vice-president Geraldo Alckmin (PSB).
GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
The survey also highlighted small variations, within the margin of error, in the assessment of the Lula government and in the president’s personal approval.
According to the survey, 35% have a positive assessment of the government, compared to 37% in the survey conducted in May, while 31% view the government negatively, compared to 30% in the previous survey, and 32% see it as regular, compared to 31%.
When it comes to Lula’s personal approval, 50% approve of the president, up from 51% in May, while 46% disapprove, up from 46%.
The MDA interviewed 2,002 people between November 7 and 10.
Source: Terra
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