The planet’s average temperature is expected to exceed the pre-industrial global average by more than 1.5°C
2024 will be the hottest year ever recorded in the history of humanity and will be the first to exceed the warming threshold of 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period, a limit established by the Paris Agreement. The announcement was made on Monday 8th by the European Copernicus Observatory.
After the second warmest November, “it is certain that 2024 will be the warmest year (so far) on record” for humanity, with the average temperature exceeding “pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C”, he reported the observatory.
The penultimate month of the year was characterized by a succession of numerous devastating typhoons in Asia and the continuation of historic droughts in southern Africa and the Amazon. The aforementioned month was 1.62°C warmer than the normal month of November, at a time when oil, gas or coal was being used on an industrial scale around the world.
The price of the damage
According to the latest calculations from the United Nations (UN), the world is not on track to reduce carbon pollution to avoid a sharp worsening of the droughts, heat waves or torrential rains already observed, which cause deaths and economic repercussions .
According to the United Nations Climate Change Organization, current national policies are pushing the planet towards “catastrophic” warming of 3.1°C over the course of the century, or 2.6°C if pledges to do better will be respected.
Countries have until February to submit a review of their 2035 climate targets to the UN, but the minimum agreements at COP29 held at the end of November can be used to justify low ambitions.
Developing countries have received $300 billion in annual aid from rich countries until 2035, or less than half of their needs to finance the energy transition and adaptation to climate damage.
In 2024, natural disasters, fueled by warming, will cause economic losses of 310 billion dollars worldwide, announced last Thursday Swiss Re, a Swiss group that operates as an insurer of insurance companies.
Variations in atmospheric phenomena
In 2023, the natural phenomenon El Niño combined with climate warming has pushed global temperatures to record levels. Climatologist Robert Vautard explains that the period following El Niño “is many times warmer than the first” and after a peak in December-January “the value is distributed throughout the year”. But in 2024, “it is true that the cooling is very slow and the causes will need to be analyzed”, he adds.
“For now we remain within the expected margins” of the projections, but if “temperatures do not fall more effectively in 2025, questions will have to be asked,” he said.
A study published on Thursday 5th in Science highlights that, in 2023, the Earth will reflect less solar energy into space, due to the reduction of low-altitude clouds and, to a lesser extent, due to the decrease in ice cover.
In Antarctica, the ice sheet has remained at historically low levels since 2023, Copernicus says, with a new melting record for November. /AFP
Source: Terra
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