The members of the manager and Brazilian experts still try to understand what the United States government will be opening to be negotiated with Brazil and how the quote system is in force
Brasilia – O Lula government The official decision of Donald Trump To impose rates of 25% on steel and the aluminum Imported by the Americans. In addition to not knowing how the measurement will actually be implemented by United StatesThe members of the manager and Brazilian experts still try to understand what the United States government will be opening to be negotiated with Brazil. You must also understand how the new taxation will talk to the current shares system.
In 2018, during the TEMER GOVERNMENTBrazilian diplomacy reached an agreement with the Americans and avoided the overwhelming steel exported in exchange for a United States sales system.
This treaty is valid to date and has entered into force in June of that year. For the semi -decated steel, the fee has been defined to 3.5 million tons per year and for the finished product (long, plans, stainlessly and tube), 543,000 tons.
Now, the Brazilian government will have to understand the fate of this agreement against Trump’s new announcement. Brazil is still regarding the dark because so far the republican has not detailed the way it will implement the measure.
According to people together with commercial operations between the two countries, it is also not possible to know if there will be a violation of Brazil to negotiate with us if the rates are announced. According to the interlocutors, the Lula government has already evaluated the risk of possible rates, but the decisions will be made only in a specific case.
The Planalto guide is for discretion
This lack of information guided the immediate response of the Brazilian representatives on Monday 10. The driving of Planalto to Lula’s assistants was discretion on the subject. The declarations of the Ministers of Finance, Fernando Haddadfrom industry, Gerald AlfminIt was in the same line: wait for the concrete measure of the Americans. ALCKmin also recalled the definition of shares in 2018, mentioning that there is the will of the Brazilian government to collaborate.
Experts who monitor the theme and follow the floor of the negotiations during the first term of Trump make the same assessment of the need for caution and discretion by the Brazilian government. For them, it is not clear what the negotiation space will be in case of steel due to the force system. If, for example, there may be a tariff gradation within the space of quotas.
In addition, doubts about the will of American management to negotiate a less restrictive scenario for Brazil. Although Trump has closed recent agreements with the Mexico, Canada and the Colombiawhich made him withdraw in the announced measures, in the case of China There have not yet been negotiations and the commercial war is going up.
After Brazil avoided the steel supplement in 2018, other countries that sell the product to the United States over time, incorporate the same system of quotas to be sold to Americans. At first other nations also adopted the same type of agreement, such as the Argentine and the South Korea.
How the shares in the Biden government worked
Overall, today the great steel exporters of the United States sell in shares format.
During Biden governmentThe system also underwent some flexibility, such as the creation of exceptions for the export share in the case of steel items in the United States.
In its original design, the limit of what Brazil can sell to the United States is considered difficult. The model itself, “hard quote”, does not admit any export outside the quantity determined by the altitude.
In the case of aluminum, in 2018, the 10% rate announced by Trump has become a reality. According to a source that accompanied the negotiations at that moment, did the aluminum sector understand that it would be better to work with a supplement than with a shared system? Understanding different from the steel segment. Even with the negotiated exit, steel exports to the United States recorded a drop compared to 2017.
Another point to be aware, to evaluate the sources of the sector, is the justification that Trump will use to impose new rates. In 2018, the national security charge was fired after a process of investigation by the US authorities.
Now, it seems that the Republican will try to use the legal foundation as a legal basis, which allows a more immediate action by the United States government. But the solidity of this topic will still be tested, even in the US courts, that the importers and the US companies can appeal if they are damaged by the rate.
Source: Terra
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