The rise dollar could prepare prices, but the excessive fertilization of products such as orange juice, coffee and meat would break down inflation; Lula’s reaction will be decisive for the exchange rate
Brasilia – O Tariff announced by the United States government on Brazilian products it still generates debates between economists on their impacts on inflation. On the one hand, the most appreciated American currency would make the products imported from Brazil more expensive. But, on the other hand, redirects to the internal market of articles that would be exported to the United States would break down inflation.
The only certainty, say the experts listened to by EstadãoIt is that if the Brazilian government decides to take revenge with rates, 50% of the picture will also change the figure, with a climb of commercial war and a direct effect on prices.
For now, the reaction of the Exchange market has been relatively contained, says the economist Luis Otávio LealFrom the G5 partners, because the understanding of investors is that the Brazilian government will give a calculated response based on diplomacy and without climbing the dispute with the President of the United States Donald Trump.
“The dollar reaction has so far been very based on the idea that the reaction of the Brazilian government was more contained, there was no immediate retaliation. So it was clear that what weighs on the exchange rate will be this reaction of the Brazilian government,” said Leal.
THE dollar It jumped from $ 5.44 to $ 5.50 Wednesday, the day of the announcement of rates (1.04%), with a high at $ 5.54, Thursday. On Friday, however, he was stable. In the three days, the accumulated increase was 1.08%.
“For now, the forces on tariff inflation are canceled. What has been discharged for the dollar at the moment is nothing, returned to the same level two weeks ago. If this is diluted in inflation in 12 months, it is a very small effect, which can be compensated for an increase in the supply of meat, for example,” he said Marcelo FonsecaChief Economist Reag investments.
However, the Trump rate takes Brazil from an adverse scenario for inflation, which increases uncertainties. Annual inflation (12 months) increases from 5.35% to June. It was the sixth consecutive month of inflation above the 4.5% target ceiling and much above the 3% goal set by the National Monetary Council (CMN). That Forced the Central Bank to issue a letter that explains the reasons to justify non -compliance with the goal.
The expectations are also “in disagreement”, with projections above the goal of 3% until the year 2028, according to the Focus bulletin. In a public hearing in the Chamber of Representatives this week, the president of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galipolo, summarized the demanding scenario for inflation, which has “Ipca from the goal of the nucleus (which excludes the most volatile articles), current inflation, expectations and food nucleus”.
The economist Luiz Roberto CunhaFrom Puc-Rio, it has a more pessimistic vision and believes in an impact on prices, even if indirect. Remember that Trump has already warned that rates will go up again in case of retaliation and states that the decision of the United States government is political, not economic, since Americans have a commercial surplus with Brazil.
“The risk is of a climb of the dispute, in the event of the retaliation of the Brazilian government, in a scenario similar to what happened to China. But even if it has a high 50% of rates, it will have an effect on inflation even if indirect,” he said.
Andrea ângeloFrom Warren Investmentos, he understands that to allow the rate to have a stronger impact on inflation, the dollar will have to return to operate above the home of $ 6 and remain at that level for a long time. Therefore, the market will accompany all the movements of the Brazilian government.
“I understand that the prejudice is insinuating for the IPCA, provided that the dollar does not exceed the barrier of $ 6. Articles such as coffee, orange and beef juice, which have an important weight in our export agenda for the United States, can end up becoming more available here. But you have to see the negotiations that walk and what will be Brazil’s response,” said Angelo.
At the IPCA in June, the coffee on the ground has accumulated an increase in prices of 77.88% in the last 12 months. The meats (ox, pork and ram) increased by 23.63% in the same comparison, with a 15% increase in the filet mignon, 24.15% in the alcatra and 25.5% in the duck. Already the orange of pear, more used to producing juices, had an increase of 6.26%.
