The asteroid 2024 YR4detected in December, it has worried scientists after new calculations point to an increase in the likelihood of impact with Earth in 2032. Initially considered a remote risk, the object was evaluated with 1% chance of collision by the European Space Agency (ESA) In January. At the end of the month, the NASA revised this estimate to 1.6%while a new more recent calculation has raised projections of the impact risk to 2.8%.
Although the threat is still considered small, the fact that the numbers are rising suggests that the asteroid trajectory requires extra attention. Both NASA and ESA admit that precise lack of data on some characteristics of 2024 YR4 may be inflating the calculations, but do not rule out the need for rigorous monitoring.
The size of the asteroid, estimated between 40 and 90 meters in diameterit is also a critical factor. If it is smaller, the impact would be similar to that of the famous Tunguska event in 1908, which devastated a vast region of Siberia. If it is larger, damage can be significantly higher.
For more accurate answers, astronomers will use the James Webb Space Telescope To study the asteroid in March and May 2025. With infrared technology, Webb will allow more accurate measurements of object size and composition, reducing uncertainties in calculations.
The new reassessment of the 2024 YR4 trajectory should take place in 2028when he will be visible again. Until then, the growing margin of uncertainty reinforces the need to follow every detail of your route – and hope that the numbers fall again.