Analysts polled by the Central Bank have begun to see more monetary policy easing this year, while raising the inflation outlook in 2023 above 6%.
The Focus survey released by the BC on Monday underlines that the expectation now is that the Selic base interest rate will finish this year at 12.50%, up from 12.75% previously.
For the May and June monetary policy meetings, the market estimates that the Monetary Policy Committee will still keep the rate at the current level of 13.75%.
The 2024 interest projection remains at 10.00% at the end of the year.
At the same time, the survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, found that the expectation for the 2023 HICP hike rose to 6.01%, from 5.98% the previous week. Also for 2024 the bill rose by 0.04 percentage points to 4.18%, but remained at 4.0% for the following two years.
The center of the official inflation target for 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024 and 2025 it is 3.00%, again with a margin of tolerance of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
For Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the growth estimate is now 0.90% for 2023 and 1.40% for 2024, respectively 0.91% and 1.44% in the previous survey.
Source: Terra
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