Brazil is expected to end the so-called “dry period” in October, with hydroelectric fields at the highest historical levels for that month, ensuring good conditions for the generation of the country’s main energy source, assessed the Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee (CMSE) at a meeting on Wednesday.
According to a note published this Thursday by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, the expectation is to reach “the best storage in history” by the end of October, fluctuating between 70.4% and 81.6%, as prolonged dry spells are forecast and the reservoirs are full after heavy rains in recent months in most of the country.
National Electric System Operator (ONS) data indicated equivalent storage of 86.2%, 84.0%, 90.9%, and 98.4% in April in the Southeast/Midwest, South , northeast and north.
Storage in the National Interconnected System (SIN) at the end of April was 87.5%, the highest average in the last 12 years.
The CMSE cited a favorable climate forecast, as there is “about a 50% probability for an El Niño phenomenon to occur in the second half of 2023”.
“Typical effects in Brazil are associated with the occurrence of above-average temperatures in the southeast and midwest regions and increased rainfall in the south, especially in spring,” he said.
The ministry’s note also recalled the passage of cold fronts and the presence of areas of instability, which contributed to the occurrence of rainfall above the historical average in the main channel of the Paraná River.
Other sources have also contributed to the energy supply, the ministry said, noting that the ONS recently set a historic record for solar PV generation.
“On April 15, between 10:00 and 11:00, the centralized solar PV production reached a value of 6,430 MWmed, which corresponded to 10.1% of the load at that time,” he said.
“Furthermore, Distributed Micro and Minigeneration (DMM) has reached 20.7 GW of installed capacity,” he commented.
EXPORTS
Brazil has continued to export excess energy to neighboring countries, according to the ministry.
The ONS highlighted that in April an average of 444 MW of hydroelectric origin and an average of 803 MW of thermoelectric origin were exported to Argentina.
Exports to Uruguay amounted to 153 average MW of hydroelectric origin and 191 average MW of thermoelectric origin.
Source: Terra
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