The agricultural sector in Brazil, especially producers of corn, coffee and sugar cane, are monitoring a polar airmass that is expected to move over South America next week, and the expectation for now is that rainy weather could stop possible frosts harmful to crops, evaluate this Wednesday by Clima Rurale.
According to agrometeorologist Marco Antônio dos Santos, the polar air mass will bring temperatures very close to freezing in some areas, but the main producing regions of corn, coffee and sugar cane would be spared from freezing, if the cold front stationed at south would stop the freezing phenomenon.
This is the expectation at the moment, and updating climate models will need to be monitored to confirm the least worrying prediction.
“It will be very cold, in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina there may be freezing rain and snow. However, the fact that there is a cold front parked over the southern region, this will prevent the gigantic polar air mass from advancing (for the main producing regions ),” Santos said.
Rainy weather usually excludes the occurrence of frosts.
The lowest temperatures in Paraná, according to the Brazilian corn producer, should be recorded between June 17 and 19, with lows close to 2 degrees Celsius in the south of the state, according to data from Refinitiv’s Eikon terminal.
In southern Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main coffee region, lows of close to 5 degrees are forecast between the 19th and 20th, temperatures above those needed for frost. Something similar should happen in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul: the state is a major producer of sugar cane and corn.
The expectation for this year right now is a record corn harvest, plus a strong recovery in sugarcane and growth in coffee production – any freezes in the coffee park could have a bigger impact on next year’s crop year.
However, according to Santos, if the high pressure center shifts and manages to advance towards important production areas, severe frosts could occur.
According to him, in the – for now unlikely – hypothesis that this happens, Brazil would have a frost similar to the one recorded in 2021, when the crops of corn, coffee and sugar cane were severely affected, causing losses to producers.
“There is currently no risk of frost next week… but not because of the cold front (rain),” he said.
In the coming days, the situation of the cold front parked in the South will be monitored.
“If this front moves faster than the models indicate, the polar air mass could advance and enter Brazil,” generating frost, continued the agrometeorologist.
“The risk of frosts is minimal, due to the cold front, but one must be observed.”
Source: Terra
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