For Ian Bremmer, “holding politicians accountable is fundamental”, but it can “strengthen the perception of a large part of the population that the judiciary can be subject to political influence” in a polarized environment such as Brazilian society.
One of the most renowned political risk experts in the world, the American Ian Bremmer, 53, says he believes that the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), scheduled for Thursday (22/6), sharpens the “policy of polarization by fueling the right-wing sentiment that institutions are biased” and fears the “extreme consequences”.
On that day, the Higher Electoral Court (TSE) will hear a lawsuit filed by the PDT over the former president’s attacks on the electoral process, due to a meeting with ambassadors held in June 2022.
Depending on the verdict, Bolsonaro could become ineligible, i.e. unable to run for public office for eight years, which would remove him from the 2026 presidential race.
According to Bremmer, “holding politicians accountable is essential”, but it can “strengthen the perception of a large part of the population that the judiciary can be subject to political influence” in a polarized environment such as Brazilian society.
He also believes that, whatever the verdict, Bolsonaro will not leave the scene.
“Even if Bolsonaro is considered ineligible, he will remain influential. Any opposition candidate with his blessing would be strong,” he stresses.
Emerging countries expert and founder of Eurasia Group, one of the largest political risk advisory firms in the world, with offices in the US, UK, Japan, Singapore and Brazil, Bremmer and his team advise some of the world’s leading investors world with their analyses.
He is also the best-selling author Us against them: the failure of globalism.
Bremmer granted the following interview to BBC News Brasil via email ahead of Bolsonaro’s trial.
BBC News Brazil – What is your opinion on the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro?
Ian Bremmer – The process exacerbates political polarization by fueling right-wing sentiment that institutions are partisan and will fight them at all costs.
But I don’t think it has an impact on the Lula government and the short-term political agenda. And even if Bolsonaro is deemed ineligible, he will remain influential. Any opposition candidate with his blessing would be strong.
BBC News Brasil – Politically speaking, do you see the judgment as good or bad for Brazil’s divisive political landscape? Is this a sign that democratic institutions are working or a sign of political revenge from the left? Or both?
bremmer – Holding politicians accountable is key. But hasty judgment with extreme consequences in a polarized environment is likely a bad thing, as it further deepens those divisions. It reinforces the perception of a large part of the population that the judiciary can be subject to political influence.
I don’t see it as a revenge of the left; I see it more as a reaction to a political movement based on anti-government rhetoric.institution and in attacking the courts, media and other institutions.
BBC News Brasil – Do you think the trial could trigger greater polarization in Brazilian society?
bremmer – YES. Right-wingers will see this as a signal that reinforces their view that they are being unjustly persecuted.
BBC News Brasil – And could it strengthen the far right, gain momentum? Or weaker?
bremmer – It won’t spark unrest or strengthen the far-right in the short term, but they will remain mobilized and could take to the streets if the Lula government suffers a more serious political or economic crisis.
BBC News Brasil – Do you draw any parallels with the Trump trial? Coincidentally, the two former presidents, from the same political spectrum, once with close ties to each other, are tried at the same time, but still enjoy great popular support.
bremmer – The parallels are clear, but the cases are different. They won’t necessarily end up the same way. But one thing seems clearer: Troubles in court don’t take political leaders out of the picture. President Lula is proof of this.
Source: Terra
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