Is the “unused” market in Saudi Arabia still attractive to Hollywood after the bans?

“Where else can you find a movie market that is virtually non-existent today that could reach $1 billion in five years?”

It’s only been four years since AMC Theaters CEO Adam Aaron made that bold statement about Saudi Arabia, a few months after the Kingdom dramatically revealed that theaters could open for the first time since the early 1980s.

In early 2018, AMC led the gold rush of leading international prospectors and is proud to be behind the first new cinema of this new era: the modern renovated conference room in Riyadh’s King Abdullah financial district, where the historic screening was accomplished. . javi panther Held on April 18. PwC also declared Saudi Arabia a “billion-dollar opportunity” in a detailed report a year later, arguing it could hit the 2030 target, adding that reopening cinemas “explains the useless and unprofitable economy. Chance”.

A lot has changed since then. The Khashoggi scandal has forced many international companies to reconsider their business relationship with the country, or at least appear so, as the COVID pandemic has shaken the entire global theater industry. But now that the box office recovery is in full swing, another major factor has emerged that few could have predicted.

Earlier this week, it was revealed that Pixar light-year It will not be released in Saudi Arabia, reportedly due to the same-sex kiss by two female characters. This was followed by Marvel. Dr. Strange in many worlds of madnessthat in april the hollywood reporter It was revealed that he was banned from meeting a gay character, América Chávez (played by Hochitl Gómez). The Doctor Strange The sequel was blocked just a few months later. THR It was reported that local censors protested against another major MCU title: Eternal, For a kiss of the same sex. Not even Disney musicals debuted: in January, by Steven Spielberg west side history The adaptation was halted due to a transgender character played by non-binary actor Airy Menas.

While censorship was a hot topic of discussion in 2018, especially given the Gulf’s stance on LGBT issues, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia’s prescient cinematic rise coincided with a major push for Hollywood to appear in mainstream Hollywood subtitles. But has this forecast slowed down?

According to analysts and Hollywood executives, definitely not.

While there’s a slim chance of hitting $1 billion at the box office next year, Aaron predicts that PwC’s 2030 forecast will hit that number.

“These accusations are not unfounded,” said Rob Mitchell, London-based analyst Gower Street’s director of theater ideas. “Is this going to happen? Ძ It’s hard to say. But if the market can grow at an annual rate of 18%, it will reach US$ 1 billion in 2030. Last year, if it grows 18%, it would reach US$ 1.05 billion.

In 2021, Saudi Arabia’s cash registers reached around $238 million, according to Comscore, which grew by nearly 95% in 2020, making it the 15th largest market in the world. While the 2020 pandemic was clearly dramatic, Saudi Arabia’s growth the following year, driven by the organic development of a new market (the number of multiplexes increased from 14 to 55 in April 2022), was higher the following year. Than several other big markets.

The kingdom’s coffers in 2021 were actually larger than those of Italy, which suffered a slow post-Covidian recovery, hitting Saudi Arabia in the six largest areas of Europe, the Middle East and Africa (excluding the UK/Ireland, France, Germany, Russia and Spain). ). For the first time, a significant achievement for a market that literally did not exist four years ago.

Underlining the growth, Saudi Arabia’s biggest movie was in 2020 bad boys for life For around $8.8 million (search movies have had a solid business since theaters opened in the country). it was in 2021 Spider-Man: No Way HomeAt $16.9 million, that’s almost double that.

But in 2021, it was the only major movie to be released. Eternal. So far, in 2022, there are three titles, including the current biggest movie of the year in the world. Doctor Strange 2. many wait Tori: love and thunder – Tessa Thompson’s “Valkyrie” will have a much more distinct LGBT identity to become four (especially all Disney movies).

Mitchell says Saudi Arabia’s box office has increased by 45% each year ahead of Ramadan, the holy month, when movie theaters often shrink as people spend time at home with their families.

According to him, it has now increased by only 17% and this directly indicates “Doctor Strange “Hole”, they claim the movie could have easily made around 40 million riyals (10-11 million dollars). “It is interesting that these five weeks after Ramadan are exactly 40 million rials less in 2021.”

But there are still other great titles to come. Top Gun: MaverickThe biggest movie ever released since the release of Dr. Strange is worth around $9 million. jurassic world domination A similar solid number is expected to accumulate. Mitchell predicts that if the box office doesn’t significantly improve from what it is now, Saudi Arabia will complete it in 2022 with around $280 million. While there is still a jump in 2021, the country is expected to emerge in the top six in EMEA due to Italy’s post-COVID recovery.

“But it will probably bring Italy back and probably Spain in a few years,” he said. “So absolutely. [Saudi Arabia] It will continue to be a market on which studies are focused, because it is a growing market and not so much today”.

And for all the noise around light-yearMitchell points out that animation has traditionally not done “well” in Saudi Arabia, so losing revenue isn’t something that is likely to maintain Disney’s high quality overnight. Says one of the main executives of the study. THR That loss is expected to amount to around $2 million, which he describes as “more embarrassing than anything else.”

An interesting detail has been released about this. light-year The news was that Disney did not submit the film to be shown in Saudi Arabia because it knew they would be asked to remove a same-sex kiss (Disney did not immediately respond to a request for comment).

The studio previously refused to remove LGBT scenes. Eternal s Dr. Strange and the Many Worlds of Madness To raise the profile of Saudi Arabia’s output, this latest development underscores the unwillingness, as one source put it, to “step back” to censor the country as much as China.

While Saudi Arabia’s box office is growing substantially, its current relatively low level compared to large areas such as China, where films can gross over $100 million, seems beyond Hollywood’s concern.

“I’ve never heard Saudi Arabia mentioned at a studio meeting, except in the list of countries where the film will be released,” said a producer who has worked with several studio partners, including Disney. The general consensus, it seems, is that while there may be some money left on the table, it just isn’t worth the headache.

But what happens when Saudi Arabia reaches its full potential at the box office when the money left on the table is potentially $60 million instead of $60 million?

“There may come a time when the loss of a film released in Saudi Arabia is enough for studios to edit it,” Mitchell said. “What’s a line?” At what level of millions?”

And while only Disney has dealt with these issues so far, there’s a potential gimmick in Disney+ that aired in the Gulf on June 8 last week.

Online censorship is much grayer than theatrical releases (Arabic adaptation by Netflix perfect strangers – with a gay character and storyline – one of your standout hits earlier this year), could it be a platform to submit films that are unlikely to make it to Saudi theaters?

There’s a lot to learn about how this will work in terms of censored content in the Disney+ region. It should be noted, however, that Eternal It is currently not available in the Saudi version of Streamer.

Mia Gallupo and Boris Kitty contributed to this report