The current wave of dengue cases shows signs of easing, but the Ministry of Health predicts that Brazil could face a new epidemic in the final months of the year
After 5 million cases of dengue and 2,800 deaths due to the disease, the current dengue epidemic is losing steam and walks towards its end. However, it is possible that Brazil will face another wave of outbreaks later this year, according to forecasts from the Ministry of Health. If the projection is confirmed, arbovirus cases are expected to increase again in the final months of the year and last until May the year it arrives.
Just five months into 2024, it can already be said that the country has never recorded so many cases of the disease transmitted by the dengue mosquito (Aedes aegizi), since the beginning of the time series in the 2000s. Until then, the record number of cases was in 2015, with 1.68 million cases.
Despite new technologies being implemented, such as vaccines and Wolbachia mosquitoesThe Brazilian scenario in relation to dengue has several causes, including climate change.
With numerous heat waves and rising average temperatures, the conditions favorable for the proliferation of mosquitoes are maintained for a longer period of time, which could result in more transmissions and more patients. Therefore, preventive measures, such as avoiding the accumulation of stagnant water, must be taken throughout the year, regardless of whether it is summer or not.
New dengue epidemic?
Despite the decline in the trend of dengue cases, the Ministry of Health is already starting to prepare for the possibility that the curve of cases will rise again at the end of the year, as explained by Ethel Maciel, secretary of Health and Environmental Surveillance at the Ministry of Health. Department, in a press conference.
“We already are too [trabalhando] with our group doing this modeling [dos casos de dengue no país]InfoDengue, with the possibility of there being a preview of this 2025 epidemic at the end of 2024,” Secretary Maciel said last week.
To define the entire 2024/2025 dengue fight plan, the “International Workshop on Arboviruses” was organized. At this meeting, several researchers discussed what has worked to combat mosquitoes and new control strategies.
After having developed this new “plan to deal with the new epidemic period in Brazil”, which is still being developed, Ethel explains that “the next stage is the agreement with Conass [Conselho Nacional de Secretários de Saúde] and Conasems [Conselho Nacional de Secretarias Municipais de Saúde] so we can begin implementing this response plan in 2024.”
It is worth noting that, if the prediction is confirmed, it will not be unprecedented in Brazilian history to anticipate the epidemiological scenario of dengue in Brazil. In 2023 and 2024 this has already happened. In other words, the increase in cases was observed before the month of May, which is considered historically maximum. More details on this strategy are expected to be announced soon.
Dengue in Brazil
According to the Arbovirus Panel this Monday (20th), Brazil has already recorded 5.1 million probable cases of dengue. Furthermore, there are 2,800 confirmed deaths and another 2,700 under investigation. Included, The worst case scenario for the disease identified by the Ministry of Health itself has already been confirmed in January this year.
On the other hand, it is a fact that this year at least the first dengue epidemic is coming to an end. National data indicates that no state shows an increasing trend. For now, only two states still have a tendency towards stability: Maranhão and Mato Grosso. Aside from that, the rest of Brazil is trending downward.
Until now, It is not known what impact the Rio Grande do Sul tragedy will have on the number of cases — if temperatures drop, the probability of epidemics should be low, as this scenario is not conducive to the proliferation of the dengue mosquito.
Source: Arbovirus panel
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Source: Terra
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