BTG Pactual reiterated a neutral recommendation for the company’s shares Equals (VALUE3), also evaluating promising signs on the horizon. According to the bank, there is still a lack of greater visibility on some issues involving the mining company.
“While doubts remain on the horizon regarding the measures, the change of CEO and, ultimately, how much the policy of encouraging the real estate market in China will actually lead to an increase in demand in the sector, we must admit that the outlook has shown signs has improved recently,” comments BTG.
The bank claims that the iron ore prices it has returned to US$120/t and the outlook for 2Q24 is good (+30% q/q in EBITDA). Furthermore, base metal prices are also improving and Chinese authorities are releasing support more vigorously.
“Although we still maintain our neutral rating Vale shares unchanged for now, we must recognize that there are several positive signs on the horizon,” reiterates BTG.
However, in terms of valuation, the BTG team still finds it difficult to see much upside potential, but values the shares to remain discounted with 2024 Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of 4x and earnings dividends closer to 9%.
“Essentially, we believe there is still risk mitigation to be priced into the stock following recent developments (mainly macro),” analysts say.
In this context, BTG has a neutral recommendation for Vale ADR on the New York Stock Exchange, with a target price of US$16.00 – trading today at US$12.60.
Worth: XP sees the shares at a discount and reiterates its buy recommendation
In a new report on the mining and steel sector, XP said that OK trades at a discount to the price of iron ore, while CSN Mineração (CMIN3) has a premium to commodity prices.
According to our analysis, we see that Vale rates the iron ore at 103 US$/t, while the CSN Mineração is equal to US$117/t, respectively -15% and -3% compared to spot iron ore prices”, reads the research.
XP has a buy recommendation and Approximate price of Vale of R$82, a potential increase of 24%.
XP also updated its estimates for CBA (CBAV3), reiterating a Buy recommendation, with a target price of R$9.00/share (33% upside). The recommendation is driven by better timing for aluminum prices and an attractive valuation, with the opportunity to convert debt into equity.
“We expect structurally greater demand than aluminum driven by electric vehicles, renewables, copper substitution and power grids, while short-term supply shortages (caused by Chinese capacity constraints, low LME inventories and bauxite shortages) are expected to support higher prices of aluminium,” comments XP.
“One of the cheapest mining companies in the world,” says Tiago Reis
In a recent video, Tiago Reis, founder and president of Suno, points out that Vale was the large mining company on the planet that paid the most dividends to its shareholders, which, according to him, brings some important signals.
“Vale is returning capital to its shareholders. It is a company that remunerates its shareholders well. The dividend is felt in the account, the appreciation depends a little on the mood of the market, but the dividend depends 100% on the company” , he describes.
For Reis, another factor is this Dividend applies It is a consequence of the mining company’s share price.
“Today the OK It is one of the cheapest mining companies in the world, has lower multiples than its peers. It generates liquidity, as other competitors also do, but since Vale’s shares were cheaper and continue to be cheaper, this type of dividend is more representative of the share price than other competitors and for this reason it paid a sum substantially higher dividend,” he adds.
Annual performance of Vale stock
Source: Terra

Rose James is a Gossipify movie and series reviewer known for her in-depth analysis and unique perspective on the latest releases. With a background in film studies, she provides engaging and informative reviews, and keeps readers up to date with industry trends and emerging talents.