Tesla car has 22% chance of hitting Earth

Tesla car has 22% chance of hitting Earth


Astrophysicists at Cornell University estimate there is a 22% chance that the Tesla Roadster will “fall from space” and hit our planet in millions of years

If you followed the Canaltech 6 years ago, you must have read the news here that Elon MuskCEO of Teslasent into space, as part of the first mission of the Falcon Heavy rocket, by SpaceX, a red example of its brand of autonomous cars. On the mission, a Tesla Roadster was launched in February 2018, and now, in 2024, astrophysicists from Cornell University calculate the chances of the car “falling” to Earth: they are around 22%.




Where is the Tesla Roadster?

Currently, the Tesla car is more than 100 million kilometers from Earth, wandering in space. You will be able to check in real time where the Roadster is at the exact moment you are reading this news, in fact, just access the WhereIsRoadster.com website.

And, a curiosity: if the car battery is still working, it means that the Starman doll (a mannequin sent on board the car as a “pilot”, wearing the SpaceX space suit) has already listened to the song Space Oddity, by Bowie, about 625 thousand times.

 

In fact, it is also worth noting that the Roadster has completed, to date, 4.12 orbits around the Sun since launch. The vehicle has traveled enough to travel all the roads in the world approximately 79 times!

Possibility of collision with Earth

According to the new paper, still without peer review and hosted on the arXiv platform, there is a probability that the Tesla car will collide with the Earth in the future, as if it were an asteroid. Through simulations, scientists have statistically calculated the chances of collisions with the planets of the Solar System.

They concluded that the Tesla Roadster has:

  • About 12% chance of collision with the Sun;
  • The same probability of collision with Venus;
  • About 22% chance of hitting Earth.

However, despite the calculations, any of these hypotheses, if confirmed, would be realized within a few million years.

Remember the case

Exactly six years, three months and 17 days ago, the infamous Tesla Roadster has been launched into space, during the maiden flight of a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket. The launch was broadcast live on social media and you can watch it here:

 

On board was a mannequin wearing a SpaceX spacesuit nicknamed Starman, as well as some Easter eggs and a sign that said Don’t panic (don’t panic, in free translation), clear allusion to the book The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, by Douglas Adams. During the broadcast, the adventure featured a highly evocative soundtrack: Space oddityby David Bowie.

Source: Where is Roadster; arXiv (Cornell University)

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