The warm Atlantic influences coastal precipitation. The winter solstice falls on June 20 at 5:51 pm Brasilia time.
Winter begins astronomically on June 20, at 5:51 pm Brasilia time.
The formation and gradual intensification of a new episode of the La Niña phenomenon will influence the trend of temperatures and precipitation throughout the winter of 2024.
The winter of 2023 was marked by the El Niño phenomenon, one of the causes of the waves experienced by Brazil.
The years 2020, 2021 and 2022 were affected by La Niña.
Dry air predominates in winter 2024 in the Northeast (Photo: Getty Images)
Ocean situation
During the winter of 2024, the Pacific Ocean will transition from neutral to La Niña. La Niña is most likely to officially begin between July and August. During the neutral phase, cooling continues to occur along the equatorial Pacific, and even without the official configuration of the phenomenon, some effects can be noticed in the atmosphere from July onwards.
The Atlantic Ocean will still be quite warm in the tropical region at the start of winter, although heat loss in recent weeks in regions further from the Brazilian coast has been notable. Along the coastal strip, between RN and ES, waters continue to warm, providing more heat to the atmosphere, which warms adjacent regions. This warming tends to decline over the course of the winter, and areas further from the coast will continue to cool.
The subtropical Atlantic tends to warm slowly during the winter, especially in areas near the coast from the SC to the RJ, due to the frequent flow of warm air from the interior of the country to these regions. In some periods of persistent warm air flows, resurgences may occur in some parts of the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, which favor sea fog.
Winter 2024 in the Northeast region
Precipitation
Climatology shows that winter is a predominantly dry and warm season in the northeast. Rain is concentrated on the east coast of the region, and ocean temperature has a large influence on coastal precipitation.
For winter 2024, heavier rainfall is expected only in the eastern part, between BA and RN; volumes between average and slightly lower in the three months, with a progressive reduction until September.
Warmer-than-normal waters of the Atlantic Ocean may still produce heavy rain. In Agreste there is a lot of cloud cover and drizzle/light rain in July and August, but below average. The north-eastern interior is very dry, with almost no rain, as is the northern coast.
Temperatures
The temperature is above average in MA, PI, CE and RN in the three months, and in the western part of BA in September. In the interior of the region, especially between BA and PE, the dry air and the persistent action of the ASAS (more persistent trade winds) will favor cooler air and colder nights.
Source: Terra
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