Less than four months before the elections, yet another dispute between groups of the ancient family clan of Antônio Carlos Magalhães and the group led by the PT, which commanded the state government in 2007, is expected to move the elections in El Salvador. While mayor Bruno Reis (União), candidate for re-election, leaves with a large advantage, it will be up to deputy governor Geraldo Júnior (MDB) to make himself known and recognized as a candidate for governor Jerônimo Rodrigues and the PT leaders who commanded the State: Senator Jaques Wagner and Minister Rui Costa.
The poll carried out by the Paraná Pesquisas institute and released on June 4 shows Bruno Reis, with 64%, well ahead of his former ally Geraldo Júnior (MDB), who appears with 11% and will have to repeat the rapid growth of his allies in the final stretch of the latest state controversies. In third place is Kleber Rosa (PSOL) with 3.8%. Victor Marinho (PSTU) has 3.3% of valid voting intentions. Eslane Paixão (Unidade Popular) is also part of the race, but was not included.
AtlasIntel research published in March showed a similar scenario. The current mayor also appeared in the survey with 64.4% of voting intentions, but Geraldo Júnior fared a little better than in Paraná, reaching 23%. Rosa remains in third place, with 10.4%. Marinho and Paixão were not listed in this search.
The current head of the municipal executive maintains a considerable base of parties vying for this year’s municipal elections, with 12 acronyms so far, of which the largest are: União Brasil, PDT, PP, Republicans, PL, PSDB, Cidadania, Novo, DC and PRD.
In this favorable scenario, Reis also reunites his pre-candidacy for re-election with a well-known name in Bahian politics and with his political godfather, Antônio Carlos Magalhães Neto (União), who has been with him for more than 20 years, and with the who shared the position of mayor of Salvador, between 2016 and 2020, when he held the position of deputy mayor of the city. Currently, ACM Neto is the national vice president of União Brasil.
Elected in 2020, Bruno Reis confirmed his favoritism in the capital of Bahia and won the position of mayor of the city in the first round. He received 771,616 votes, a percentage of 64.2%. In second place was Major Denice Santiago (PT), candidate of the then governor Rui Costa (PT), who obtained 226,611 votes, equal to 18.88%.
His main competitor must be Geraldo Júnior, current deputy governor of Bahia and former president of the Salvador City Council, in 2019 and 2020, who was reappointed to the position in 2021 and 2022.
The emedebist, who at the time, in 2017, had already taken over the direction of the Municipal Labor Secretariat from the then mayor ACM Neto, now finds himself facing a polarized election together with his opponent Bruno Reis. In addition to being former allies, until the breakup in the 2022 elections, the two are protagonists of a political divide between the state government and the city of Salvador.
Júnior’s candidacy was launched on June 6, when the PT took the gavel and nominated Fabya Reis, Deputy Secretary of State for Social Assistance and Development (Seades).
Married to federal deputy Valmir Assunção (PT-BA), the deputy is close to the Landless Workers Movement (MST). The closeness is strengthened by Assunção, who plays an important role as a supporter of the MST within Congress.
The last competitive municipal election of the PT in El Salvador was that of Nelson Pelegrino, in 2012, who lost the dispute, in the second round, with 46.49% of the valid votes against 53.51% of ACM Neto.
In Bahia, the PT, through the governments of Rui Costa (PT), current minister of Civil Housing, and Jaques Wagner (PT), current senator, has commanded the state for four consecutive terms. Continuing the PT’s dominance, the fifth PT administration was elected in 2022, led by Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT).
With 10 grassroots parties, Geraldo Júnior’s pre-candidacy has the support of PT, PCdoB, PV, MDB, Podemos, PSB, PSD, Avante, Solidariedade and Agir. The approval of the vice governor’s pre-candidacy for mayor of Salvador did not come without controversy among PT members. The “Articulação de Esquerda” current attempted to block the decision, sending a request to the national directory to suspend support for the pre-candidacy of the emedebista, due to Júnior’s centre-right political inclination in his possible mandate alongside Jerônimo Rodriguez.
Importance of ACM Neto and Lula’s support in the elections
For the 2024 municipal elections, El Salvador voters welcome the support of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and former mayor ACM Neto.
In a scenario of nomination made by Neto, Paraná Pesquisas recorded a favorable percentage of 33.9% of voters in the capital of Bahia who declared that they “will definitely vote” in a bet supported by the vice president of União Brasil.
In the case of Lula, the impact of the PT’s nomination on the Salvadoran electorate is equal to 32%. Even higher, however, is the share of those who “would never vote” for a leader supported by the President of the Republic, with a rejection of 35.9%. Compared to Lula, ACM Neto appears lower, with 24.3% refusing support.
Swap sides
Former allies, Geraldo Júnior and Bruno Reis became adversaries after the breakdown of the long-standing alliance. The breakup occurred during the 2022 general election.
At the time, with the announcement of Jerônimo Rodrigues’ candidacy for state government, the PT tried to recreate a basis with the MDB. For Geraldo Júnior’s party, at first, the objective was to align itself with the base of the current mayor of Salvador, Bruno Reis, and appoint Neto as the party’s representative in the state government.
However, on March 30, 2022, Geraldo Júnior’s name was confirmed as the candidate for deputy governor in the list led by Rodrigues. Following the political turn, the then president of the Salvador City Council began to oppose Mayor Bruno Reis.
Júnior’s accession to the position of deputy governor of the PT base was articulated in 2022 by Wagner and Costa. The same happens in the candidacy for mayor of Salvador. A priori, the PT would have launched a party candidate, but the unfavorable scenario for the PT members in the capital of Bahia led to it abandoning the idea of presenting its own candidate.
See the pre-candidates for mayor of Salvador in alphabetical order:
– Bruno Reis (União Brasil), mayor of Salvador
– Eslane Silva da Paixão (Unidade Popular), activist
– Geraldo Júnior (MDB), deputy governor of El Salvador
– Kléber Rosa (PSOL), civil police officer
– Victor Marzinho (PSTU), Graduated in Law
Source: Terra
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