JD Vance: Why Trump’s Vice Presidential Choice Has Europe Worried

Diplomats and politicians express concern over Vance’s repeated criticism of U.S. aid to Ukraine.

European politicians and diplomats were already preparing for changes in relations with the United States in the event of a second Donald Trump presidency.

Now that the Republican nominee has chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate, those concerns seem even more pronounced about the prospects for the future of the war in Ukraine, security, and trade.

A vocal critic of U.S. aid to Ukraine, Vance told this year’s Munich Security Conference that Europe should wake up to the need for the United States to “shift” its attention to East Asia.

“The American security blanket has caused the atrophy of European security,” he said at the event in Germany.

Nils Schmid, a lawmaker from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party, told the BBC he was confident a Republican presidency in the US would maintain the strength of NATO, even if JD Vance appeared “more isolationist” and Donald Trump remained “unpredictable”.

However, he warned of a new round of “trade wars” with the United States under a second Trump presidency.

A European Union (EU) diplomat believes that after four years of Donald Trump’s presidency, no one can be naive: “We understand what it would mean if Trump were to return to office for a second term, regardless of who his running mate is.”

Describing the EU as a sailing ship preparing for the storm, the diplomat, who preferred to remain anonymous, added that future negotiations and agreements tend to be increasingly difficult.

The United States is Ukraine’s greatest ally, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week that he is “not afraid to do so.” [Trump] become president” and that “he will work together.”

Zelensky also said he believed the majority of the Republican Party supports Ukraine.

The Ukrainian president and Trump also have a mutual friend: Boris Johnson, the former prime minister of the United Kingdom, who has consistently supported continued aid to Ukraine and recently met with the former American president at the US Republican National Convention.

After the meeting, Johnson posted on X (the old Twitter) that he “has no doubt about this [Trump] will be strong and determined in supporting this country [a Ucrânia] and in defense of democracy.”

But even if that sentiment were true, it might not apply to Vance, who, days before Russia’s full-scale invasion, said on a podcast that he “doesn’t really care what happens in Ukraine, one way or the other.”

In the U.S. Senate, Vance also played a key role in delaying a $60 billion (about R$325 billion) military aid package.

“We have to try to convince him otherwise,” says Yevhen Mahda, executive director of the Kiev-based think tank Institute of World Policy.

“One fact that we can use as a trump card is that he fought in Iraq, so he should be invited to Ukraine so he can see firsthand what is happening and how American money is being spent.”

The question for Ukraine will be to what extent the prospective vice president will be able to influence the decisions of the new head.

Mahda agrees that Trump’s unpredictability could pose a problem for Kiev ahead of the US presidential election.

The Trump-Vance ticket’s biggest supporter in the European Union is Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, who recently returned from a visit to the Republican candidate, after also meeting Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he maintains close ties.

In a letter to EU leaders, Orbán said a victorious Donald Trump would not even wait to be sworn in as president to quickly call for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

“He has detailed and well-founded plans for this,” Orbán’s letter reads.

Zelensky himself said this week that Russia should attend a peace summit, possibly in November, and promised a “fully ready plan.” But he made clear he was not under Western pressure to make the proposal.

Viktor Orbán’s recent “peace missions” to Moscow and Beijing have prompted accusations that he may be abusing Hungary’s rotating six-month presidency of the European Council.

European Commission officials have been asked not to attend meetings in Hungary because of Orbán’s actions.

During Trump’s presidency, the United States imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum produced in the EU. Although they were suspended during Joe Biden’s administration, Trump has promised a 10% tax on all foreign imports if he returns to the White House.

The prospect of a new economic confrontation with the United States will be seen as a negative, even disastrous, outcome in most European capitals.

“The only thing we know for sure is that punitive tariffs will be imposed on the European Union, so we have to prepare for another wave of trade wars,” said Nils Schmid, foreign policy leader of the Social Democrats in Germany.

JD Vance criticized the German government for the country’s military preparedness earlier this year.

While he did not intend to “hit” Germany, the candidate argued that the industrial base that supports weapons production in the country is insufficient.

All of these elements could further increase the pressure on Germany, Europe’s largest economy, to “step up” as a key player in ensuring the continent’s security.

Following his much-lauded speech in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Olaf Scholz has often been accused of hesitating to supply weapons to Kiev.

But the chancellor’s allies are keen to point out that Germany is second only to the United States in terms of military aid to Kiev, even though it has achieved its goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense for the first time since the end of the Cold War, albeit using a short-term budget.

“I think we’re on the right track,” said Schmid, a lawmaker from the government base. “We need to rebuild a military that has been neglected for 15 or 20 years.”

But observers are far from convinced that Europe’s behind-the-scenes preparations are serious or sufficient.

There are few leaders with the political clout or inclination to defend a cumbersome future security architecture for an unwieldy European continent.

Scholz has a more low-key style and a clear resistance to taking the lead in bolder foreign policy positions – and he faces the very real prospect of being removed from office next year.

French President Emmanuel Macron has been left severely weakened after calling parliamentary elections that have left the country in a state of political paralysis.

Polish President Andrzej Duda warned on Tuesday (16/7) that if Ukraine loses the fight against Russia, “then a potential Russian war against the West is imminent.”

“The voracious Russian monster will want to attack continuously,” Duda accused.

Source: Terra

Rose

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