Last Wednesday (18th) the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) increased the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it to 12.75% per annum. The decision, which represents the first increase since August 2022, is directly reflected in the stocks of Direct Treasury.
Well beyond last week’s interest rate hike, projections for the Selic rate in the short and medium term they continue to increase. Node Focused bulletin This week, which is the weekly report released by the Central Bank with estimates for the economy, the median financial market projections for the base interest rate at the end of 2024 increased from 11.25% to 11.50 %.
The scenario impacts the investment market as a whole, particularly fixed income assets whose income is linked to interest.
How do high interest rates affect the Direct Treasury?
With the Selic rate rising, fixed income securities can directly benefit from the scenario and attract more investors. However, some securities may emerge in this scenario, such as floating rate securities.
“In fixed income, post-fixed securities can be a good alternative, especially in the short term. These investments follow the Selic rate, allowing the investor to benefit directly from the rising interest rate cycle,” explains Lucas Almeida, specialist in securities market and partner of AVG Capital.
Furthermore, according to Rodrigo Azevedo, economist, financial planner and partner at GT Capital, post-fixed bonds linked to the Treasury Selic 2027 AND 2029 they could be attractive alternatives for investors right now.
As the name suggests, both securities are linked to the Selic rate, however there is a difference in relation to the maturity date, which brings an additional benefit to the profitability of these assets. Currently, the 2027 Treasury Selic has an annual profitability of the Selic +0.06%, while the 2029 Treasury has an increase of 0.13% compared to the Selic.
The GT Capital partner also points out that the volatile monetary policy scenario, in addition to the start of the new interest rate hike cycle, means that the average real CDI for the next 12 months will be higher than real interest rates on bonds related to the short-term HICP term.
“For this reason, we have reduced the recommendation for shorter-term inflation bonds, but still maintained a neutral stance on inflation with longer maturities, as for longer maturities we see possibilities for greater real profitability for investors. For money-related assets ‘IPCA, the Treasury IPCA 2035, 2045 AND 2055 they are interesting options”, concludes the analyst in relation to the securities of Direct Treasury.
Source: Terra
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