Palmeiras is closing in on leaders Botafogo, who have more than a 50% chance of becoming champions. Corinthians’ chances of going to Liberta double
The UFMG Mathematics Department has published its studies on the title chances, the Libertadores and the risk of falling to Serie B of the 20 teams competing in the Brazilian Serie A after eight matches, this November 20, for the 34th round. There are still Vasco x Internacional, this Thursday, and Fluminense x Fortaleza, this Friday. But even so, UFMG released its numbers.
In the fight for the title, while Botafogo drew against Atlético and Palmeiras beat Bahia, Glorioso remains leader, but now with just two points ahead. In this way we go from 70% to 53% of the sample, Palmeiras rises to 41.1%. It’s worth remembering that the teams will face each other anyway, at Palmeiras’ home ground. The one who can give you a nice climb is Fortaleza. He has a 5.4% chance of becoming champion. However, if Fluminense were to win they would approach double figures. Fla and Inter have minimal opportunities. San Paolo is almost a trace.
In the fight for the Libertadores, attention is focused on the possibility that the current G7 becomes the G8 or G9. But the truth is that Corinthians have significantly improved their chances according to UFMG. The chance has doubled, now close to 17%.
Already relegated, even if Atlético Goianiense, who loses in the round, still has little chance of escaping, UFMG already sees its relegation as certain. To clarify: Dragão should win all the matches, Juventude should lose all the matches and Bragantino and Criciúma should lose all the matches until the final phase. Then they face each other and the match must end in a draw. In other words, a lot of calculations have to be made so that Dragão Goiás doesn’t fall at the start of the next round.
Possibilities, by UFMG
It is important to underline that the Mathematics Department of UFMG is a point of reference in Brazil when it comes to football odds. After all, the studies take into account the importance of the away games, the number of games that will still be played and the current situation of the teams. However, since there are teams with fewer games, they, even behind some rivals, have a better chance of success.
Furthermore, zero is not absolute; is considered when a team has less than a 0.0001 chance of winning the title or is in danger of falling. In this way it is possible to observe that there are teams that, despite being behind some rivals, still have a better chance of success. Anyway, see the UFMG numbers below:
BRASILEIRÃO OPPORTUNITIES FOR UFMG
Fight for the title
1st – Botafogo (69 points) – title 53%; 100% Libertadores, zero relegation risk
2nd – Palmeiras (67 points) – 41.1% title, 100% Libertadores, zero risk of relegation
3rd – Fortaleza (63 points, minus 1 game) – 5.4% title; 100% Libertadores, zero relegation risk
4th – Flamengo (62 points) – 0.3% share; 100% Libertadores, zero relegation risk
5th – Internacional (59 points, minus 1 game) – 0.2% title; 100% Libertadores; zero relegation risk
6th – Sao Paulo (58 points) – 0.04% share; 100% Libertadores, zero relegation risk
Fight for the Libertadores
7th – Cruzeiro (47 points) – 0% title; 29.3% from Libertadores; zero relegation risk
8th – Bahia (46 points) – 0.% title; 36.3% from Libertadores; zero relegation risk
9th – Corinthians (44 points) – 0% title; 16.7% from Libertadores; Downgrade risk of 0.018%.
10th – Vasco (43 points, 1 game less) – 0% title; 12.4% from Libertadores; Downgrade risk of 0.04%.
11th – Atlético-MG (43 points) – 0% title; 2.8% from Libertadores; Downgrade risk of 0.49%.
Risk of relegation
12th – Victory (41 points) – 0% title; 0.88% from Libertadores; Downgrade risk of 3.3%.
13th – Grêmio (40 points) – 0% title; 0.78% from Libertadores; Downgrade risk of 6.4%.
14th – Atletico-PR (40 points) – 0% title; 0.62% from Libertadores; Downgrade risk of 10.4%.
15th – Young people (38 points) – 0% title; 0.05% from Libertadores; 42% downgrade risk.
16th – Fluminense (37 points, 1 game less) – 0% title; 0.22% from Libertadores; Downgrade risk of 24.5%.
17th – Criciúma (37 points) – 0% title; 0.01% from Libertadores; Downgrade risk of 52.1%.
18th – Bragantino (37 points) – 0% title; 0.01% from Libertadores; 61% downgrade risk.
19th – Cuiabá (29 points) – 0% title; 0% of the Libertadores; Downgrade risk of 99.83%.
20th – Atlético-GO (26 points) – 0% title, 0% Libertadores; 99.999% downgrade risk.
Follow our content on social media: Twitter, Instagram and Facebook.
Source: Terra
Rose James is a Gossipify movie and series reviewer known for her in-depth analysis and unique perspective on the latest releases. With a background in film studies, she provides engaging and informative reviews, and keeps readers up to date with industry trends and emerging talents.
