The year 2024 was characterized by a significant increase in beef prices, which had a direct impact on the pockets of Brazilian consumers. According to data released this Friday (10) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), values increased by 20.84%, the largest increase since 2019.
Two main factors explain the spike: the dynamics of the livestock cycle and the impact of adverse weather conditions. After years of slaughter, the number of animals ready for the market decreased, while drought and fires made it difficult to produce pasture, the main food for livestock. Along with this, the increase in exports and the improvement in the income of Brazilians have further stimulated domestic demand.
How does the livestock cycle affect the price of meat?
The breeding cycle is one of the factors that have the greatest impact on the price of beef. In times of high demand, farmers keep cows on farms for breeding, with the expectation of increases in calf prices. This causes an immediate reduction in meat supply, putting upward pressure on prices. Conversely, in a down cycle, there is more female slaughter, increasing meat supply and reducing values in the consumer market.
At the end of 2024 there was a reversal of this cycle with fewer animals available for slaughter. This, combined with the rising price of calves, has led to the prospect of continued increases in beef prices until 2026. This process is gradual, considering that it takes time for calves to become cattle ready for slaughter, generally in 2027 or 2028.
Role of weather conditions in the meat market
Weather variability has added pressure to the beef market this year. Between the months of April and September, the reduction in rainfall, intensified by drought and fires, compromised pasture production. This reality has forced farmers to opt for livestock confinement, a more costly strategy due to the high cost of feed.
Faced with falling livestock prices, many producers have decided not to invest in confinement, resulting in a limited supply of livestock for slaughter. This put further pressure on meat prices, which were already rising due to other factors.
Why do exports affect the price of meat in Brazil?
As Brazil maintains its position as the world’s largest beef exporter, the international market has a significant impact on domestic supply. During 2024, the country broke export records, particularly in October, when it exported more than 301,000 tons of meat. This increase in shipments reflects the inability of other major suppliers to meet global demand.
High external demand has reduced the amount of meat available for domestic consumption, contributing to rising prices. Regions such as the Southeast, where meat producers have focused on the international market, have felt this impact more strongly than other areas, such as Northern Brazil, which are less dependent on exports.
Here now at the market and the husband to the wife in the meat line:
”This year we can’t spend more…”
January 4, 2025. pic.twitter.com/z2mh4J8e0Q
— Rafael Zattar (@ZattarRafael) January 5, 2025
Source: Terra
Rose James is a Gossipify movie and series reviewer known for her in-depth analysis and unique perspective on the latest releases. With a background in film studies, she provides engaging and informative reviews, and keeps readers up to date with industry trends and emerging talents.
