THE OK (VALE3) reports its financial statements for the fourth quarter of 2024 on February 19, and some analyst firms have already released projections of the numbers. This is the case of XP, which expects solid results, despite some challenges.
The company expects net sales of $9.8 billion for the Valid in 4Q24which represents a decline of 25% in the year-over-year comparison, but a slight increase of 2% compared to the previous quarter.
Check out other highlights designed by XP for Vale’s balance sheet:
Iron ore prices and volumes
- Despite the reference price of iron ore 62% Fe averaged US$89/t in the quarter, Vale’s realized prices are expected to remain stable compared to 3Q24.
- The volumes of mineral of iron shipped is expected to amount to approximately 72 million tons in 4Q24. However, the number will be lower than the usual seasonality of the period due to the adverse weather conditions recorded in December in operations in the North.
EBITDA and costs
- Adjusted EBITDA is estimated at $3.7 billion, stable on a quarterly basis, but down a significant 43% year over year.
- C1 iron ore costs are expected to fall to US$19.5/t, a bright spot in the quarter’s results. Transportation costs are expected to remain stable.
Base metals
- The base metals division’s EBITDA is expected to reach $0.6 billion, an increase of 7% from the previous year.
- Performance will be driven by higher nickel and copper volumes, thanks to favorable seasonality, in line with Vale’s guidance for the year 2024.
Therefore, XP says that while climate challenges impacted iron ore volumes in the quarter, VALE3 managed to maintain a stable position in terms of costs and operational efficiency.
The progress of the division Vale’s base metalsespecially with the increase in nickel and copper production, it also strengthens the resilience of the mining company in a volatile price scenario.
The report said investors should carefully monitor the company’s next steps, especially regarding cost management and strategies to mitigate climate impacts on operations.
XP has a neutral recommendation for Vale shareswith an indicative price of R$66 per VALE3 shares.
In this year 2025, the OK accumulates a slight decline around 0.50%. In a 52-week window, the stock falls by around 13.50%.
Source: Terra
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