The imposition of rates on Canada and China is valid from this Tuesday 4. Because Mexico should have effect in a month
The commercial war launched last Saturday, by the President of the United States, Donald Trumpagainst Mexico, Canada AND China -Beyand the promise of overcrowding against European nations of the European Union open new “commercial windows of opportunities” in Brazil, evaluate the economists and agents of the financial market listened to by Earth.
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The imposition of the US commissions is valid from Tuesday 4, with an additional rate of 10% on the property imported from China. As regards the products imported from Mexico and Canada, 25% of the rates are expected to enter into force in a month after a bilateral agreement between the countries announced on Monday 3.
Outside the Trump radar in this first moment, since the President of the United States states that rates are a consequence of illegal immigration and drug smuggish, Brazil can benefit from the imposition of these short -term rates with the ‘increase in exports of agricultural and livestock products.
“Brazil can benefit from the increase in exports to taxed countries. We have seen that this is previously verified, for example, in soy exports to China, who avoided buying from the United States in favor of Brazil. There is also the potential to increase meat exports, “says José Ronaldo, professor of economics at Ibmec-Rj.
Lucas Sharau, economist and consultant of IHub Investmentos, underlines that the moment can contribute to Brazil to position itself strategically, occupying gaps within the US market. This means expanding his presence in the United States, replacing the products that have undergone commercial restrictions.
“If products from sanctioned countries lose competitiveness, Brazil can earn space in the US market, especially in the sectors in which it competes with exporters affected by rates. This can increase Brazilian exports to the United States, “explains Lucas Sharau.
On the other hand, an increase in external demand can immerse prices in Brazil. “Exported companies, when closing contracts in dollars, can prioritize the international market, with consequent internal prices adjustments,” warns the economist.
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Tariff war
Although in some countries there may be a positive short -term effect, a tariff war usually does not benefit, experts say. According to them, it is possible, however, that we see an increase in Chinese protagonism, a phenomenon that was already underway.
“With the exception of this increase in Chinese protagonism, I do not see any country that benefits substantially from this measure”, underlines José Ronaldo.
The main consequence for the United States is the increase in inflation deriving from the increase in prices. As for the rest of the world, the main consequence is a trend of the commercial war and the closure of international trade, which is harmful to the long -term for global growth.
Lucas Sharau provides that in the short term the companies exported to the United States will have to face an increase in costs and, in many cases, could suspend their exports, making them not useful. This scenario can lead to the revision of contracts and the renovation of the supply chains, generating volatility in the markets.
“The market is on alert and feels the impact of these measures, which are part of Trump’s strategy for the bargaining of power in international negotiations. His method is to demonstrate the economic strength of the United States by imposing sanctions, which generate instability even before the start of any negotiation “, he underlines.
Reciprocity and Brazil in “Berlinda”
Last week, the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) He said that if the Brazilian tax products of the United States in retaliation for an affront against the migratory policies of Donald Trump, his government will make the same with the US assets.
According to Lula, we must respect the sovereignty of other countries. “If it taxes Brazilian products, there will be reciprocity in Brazil to tax the products that are imported from the United States,” said the pedestal.
At the center of tax policies and an increase in import rates, Trump has already listed Brazil as one of the countries that charge many rates and want to “damage” the United States.
At the moment, Brazil has more exports to the United StatesAccording to the commercial balance of 2024 prepared by the secretariat of foreign trade (Secex), the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services. Between January and December last year, exports to the United States grew by $ 9.2% and reached $ 40.33 billion, a historical record.
Imports are made by 6.9% and have $ 40.58 billion in a $ 250 million deficit. The data chopped by the Brazil-Eua commercial monitor of Ampcham Brasil show that the volume of exports also reached unpublished levels, with 40.7 million tons, which represent an increase of 9.9% over 2023.
The White House occupies the second place in the exports of the Brazilian commercial balancewith 14.95% of the total, Behind only China, with 21.10%. Also according to the analysis of Amcham Brasil, the result of imports from Brazil from the products of the United States represented the second largest volume in history, behind only 51.3 billion dollars in 2022.
See below for the main products exported and imported between Brazil and the United States, according to Secex:
Exports
- Iron mineral: 25.3%;
- Oil oil or bituminous minerals: 19.07%;
- Soy: 11.52%;
- Meat: 10.6%;
- Cellulose: 9.15%
Import
- Valves, pipes, transistors and others; 7.13% of the total;
- Telecommunication equipment, including parts and accessories: 5.36%;
- Vehicles: 5.06%;
- Organic organic compounds, heterocyclic compounds, nucleic acids and their salts and sulfonamides: 4.17%;
- Insecticides, rumpus, fungicides, herbicides, plants growth regulators, disinfectants and the like: 3.22%.
Source: Terra
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