Contrary to the expectations of Copernicus experts, January of this year followed a heating sequence despite the end of El Niño, which has increased from global temperatures. The measurement contradicted the expectations that the coldest conditions of the La Niña phenomenon could contain the sequence of record temperatures in the world.
According to Copernicus, January recorded average global temperatures of 1.75 ° C hottest in pre-industrial levels, extending a persistent series of historical records in 2023 and 2024.
The organ scientists hoped that this exceptional heat period decreased after the transition between El Niño, a phenomenon that warms the peaceful ocean and peaks in January 2024 and its opposite phase, capable of cooling temperatures, Niña .
However, since then the heat has remained at record levels or close to this, generating debates among the scientists on which other factors could guide the heating beyond the expected.
“January 2025 is another surprising month, the record temperatures observed in the last two years continues, despite the development of La Niña’s conditions on the Pacific Tropical and its temporary cooling effect on global temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic leader For the climate in the European Center for medium -term weather forecasts that provide Copernicus data.
The southern and eastern region of Europe has contributed to lifting the temperatures, exceeding the rates recorded between 1991 and 2020. Even northern Canada, Alaska, Siberia, Africa, Australia and the southern part of South America were hottest in January. On the contrary, the temperatures were below average in Iceland, the United Kingdom and Ireland.
According to Copernico, the data suggest “a slowdown or an interruption in the transition” to La Niña, which could completely disappear until March.
“This is what makes the situation a little surprising … We are not seeing this cooling effect, or at least a temporary break at the global temperature that we expected to observe,” said Julien Nicolas, a scientist of the Copernicus climate.
The heating exceeds the goal of the Paris agreement
The heating of January is symbolic because it goes beyond the initial objective of the Paris agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 ° C above the pre -industrial levels and maintains the heating pace observed in 2024, when the world broke This brand for the first time.
This is the 18th of the last 19 months in which the global temperatures of the average air surface have been above this goal. This does not represent a permanent violation of the index established in the treaty, but it is a sign that this limit is tested.
Scientists warn that each fraction of higher than 1.5 ° C increases the intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events such as heat waves, strong rains and dry. Limit to the year 2100 The increase in global temperature to a maximum of 1.5 ° C above pre -industrial levels would help to avoid the collapse of ecosystems and maintain the climate at the level.
Copernicus also reported that the Arctic sea ice reached the shortest length in the historic series for January, 6% below the average. An analysis of the United States this week stressed that this was the second smallest extension ever recorded in this data set.
The oceans are essential climatic regulators and act as carbon absorbers. The coldest waters can absorb greater quantities of heat from the atmosphere, helping to reduce air temperatures. They also retain 90% of the excess heat retained by the release of greenhouse gases by humanity.
The European Observatory has also identified a humidity higher than the average in Canada, Russia and southern Brazil, with regions that record floods.
In general, scientists provide that 2025 will end with temperatures lower than 2023 and 2024, since the hottest third year has ever been recorded. “This heat will inevitably remain periodically,” said Julien Nicolas of Copernicus.
What does global warming cause?
Scientists are unanimous in affirming that the combustion of fossil fuels is the main factor that guides long -term global warming, while natural climate change can also influence temperatures a year by year.
However, natural heating cycles, like El Niño, in themselves, do not explain what is happening in the atmosphere and in the oceans and scientists are looking for answers in other factors. “It’s still a topic of debate,” said Nicolas.
The European Union monitor uses billions of satellite measurements, ships, aircraft and weather stations for their climatic analysis. His registers date back to 1940, but other sources of climate data – such as ice nuclei, growth rings of trees and coral skeletons – allow scientists to expand their conclusions based on much older tests.
Scientists say that the current period is probably the hottest that the earth has experienced in the last 125,000 years.
GQ/CN (AFP, DPA, OTS)
Source: Terra
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