Contrary to some of the largest financial institutions in Brazil, Banco Inter reduced to 14.75% its projection to the Selic rate at the end of the current high cycle, compared to a previous expectation of 15.00%, giving as a justification of the Signs of slowdown and the compliance with the exchange rate.
In a report to customers, the head of the head of Inter Rafaela Vitória says that Selic, currently 13.25%, should climb 1 more percentage point in March and 0.50 points in May, ending the current cycle on 14 , 75%.
Inter do not discard, however, that the central bank increases Selic in 1 percentage point in March and the cycle already ends, with the basic rate to 14.25%, if there is a more pronounced slowdown in the activity.
Recent numbers have actually suggested that a slowdown in Brazil could be underway. Tuesday, Ibge Data has revealed positive surprises on the IPCA-L’On official index of Janeiro inflation, with deceleration in the nuclei and services below. On Wednesday, the numbers showed retraction from the service sector in December and Thursday revealed an unexpected fall of retail sale in the same month.
Another inflationary pressure factor has already withdrawn more than 6% against real by 2025.
The Selic projection between the terminal less than 15% is the most recent calculations of other institutions. Ita has increased Selic’s terminal projection from 20 January from 15% to 15.75%, while Bradesco maintained the calculation of 15.25% in February 5 for the basic rate at the end of the cycle.
Inflation above the ceiling
Although it has projected a terminal less than 14.75%, Inter Bank increased its inflation projection by 2025 from 4.9% to 5.2% and 2026 from 3.9% to 4.2%.
In both cases, the percentages planned are above the ceiling of 4.5% of the inflation objective of the central bank.
“The deterioration of service inflation and the increase in the exchange rate should maintain the IPCA greater than 5% over 2025 with a higher inertia for 2026, despite the most restrictive scenario of monetary policy”, says the relationship.
For the gross domestic product (GDP), Inter examined the increase in 2025 from 1.7%to 1.5%, maintaining the 2026 estimate of 2.2%.
Source: Terra
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