Analysis: the fiction on Bolsonaro’s political persecution will be the biggest problem of Lula

The complaint places Bolsonaro in the position of being politically persecuted and has the potential to inflame the supporters of the former president, with possible electoral consequences.

The accusation presented by the Office of the Prosecutor General Tuesday 18 February against the former president of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro and 33 other people is the most attentive and most important political event in the country of the last few months. The document does not really contain new elements: almost all the equipped facts were alternating in the accusation presented by the Federal Police in November last year.

There are two important developments. The first is Bolsonaro’s responsibility for a process of democratic subversion, which lasted up to the events of January 8, 2023. It all started in 2021, as soon as the Supreme Court overturned against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and has Open the way for his return to electoral game.

The decision in favor of Lula led Bolsonaro to adopt, according to the complaint, “the growing tone of breakage with institutional normality”. Since then, the president, his allies and supporters have started to question the legitimacy of the Supreme Court.

The anti -democratic narratives were inspired by Trump’s slogans

In both cases, the antidemocratic narratives were inspired by the slogans of the 2020 campaign of Donald Trump, such as “Stop the Steal” and “Big Lie”. The emulation of Trumpism was an inseparable part of the political strategy of Bolsonaro from the presidential campaign of Histo 2018.

The second new development concerns the characterization, as Casp attempts, of a series of decisions and plans that do not adapt to the classic institutional break model. Since the republican political history of Brazil has been marked by Etat coups, a common strategy in the defense of Jair Bolsonaro is based on the idea that if there are no tanks on the streets or close the congress, there was no intention of break democracy.

In his 272 -page report, Paulo Gonet claims that a contemporary coup d’état can be happy with other means. In the Brazilian case, the attempt was marked by the clear use of the disinformation mechanisms, often by the President himself and the members of the Government, to promote distrust in institutions and the electrical process, social instability and ensure that Bolsonaro remained In power, even after being defeated in the polls.

But the complaint goes further. It was not just an attempt to undermine democracy with narratives and attacks widely widespread to supporters on social media. In the words of the attorney general, among the objectives of the criminal organization established for the coup d’état they had to carry out “kidnappings, arrests and murders” in order to guarantee the control of the three branches of the government and the restoration of the law and order.

The high -ranking officers were part of the antidemocratic plan

The report states that according to the plan of the coup, called “green and yellow dagger”, a member of the special forces of the army Willd to assassinate the justice of the Supreme Court, Alexandre de Moraes, as well as the winners of the 2022 elections, lula da Silva and his vice – Deputy – Deputy – Deputy – President – President, Geraldo Alfine. The plan had already been known for a few months, but Gonet brings elements to support the case in which Jair Bolsonaro was not only aware of these steps, but who added them.

The accusations against the former president also shed light on the military rolle in the conspiracy of the coup. The officers of all ranks, starting from the members of the President’s Internal Circle, such as the admirer Almir Garnier and Generali Augusto Heleno, Paulo Sérgio Nogueira and Walter Braga Netto, were full parts of the antidocratic planning.

It is not surprising that the 34 people accused, 24 are military. The coup attempt was the conclusion of an accelerated process of militarization of Brazilian policy, which began under the presidency of Michel Temer in April 2016. In four years, the number of active military personnel who served in the White Executive White Rose service From 1834 to 2558. The height of this trial, in 2020, eight of the 22 ministries of the Bolsonaro government were occupied by military personnel.

Bolsonaro continues to deny all the accusations and is trying to stay alive politically. And the complaint puts Bolsonaro in the position of being politically persecuted. Vittimization is one of the most popular strategies of the far right, the IT allows them to project themselves, in the name of the people, against an empty and frightening enemy (the “system”).

Although Gonet has been very careful to draw up his complaint as a legal piece of exclusions, Bolsonaro – to Congress and on the networks – quickly denounced an alleged persecution against “the greatest political leader that Brazil has ever seen”. In other words, the tension against political institutions is in full swing.

Bolsonarism remains the main affixing force

The accusation also has the potential to inflame Bolsonaro supporters, with possible electoral consequences. The next national election in Brazil is a year and a half away and Bolsonaro remains the main affixing force. Figures like the first First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, the deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro and the government of San Paolo, Tarcisio de Freitas, are projects for the presidential race of 2026.

Faced with a weak government, those popularity dropped from 35 % to 24 % from December, Bolsonarism unified by the narrative of the persecution will be a serious problem for Lula. This narrative will be tested in mid -March, when national demastations were called against the current government – and favor of Bolsonaro.

Finally, we must monitor how the White House responds to political events in Brazil. We know that the pressure of the Biden administration was crucial to prevent the coup d’état from materialism in 2022

It is unlikely that the Trump administration, the month after the entry into office, draws the Brazilian political situation as a priority. But the road to 2026 will be long and tortuous and the challenges to democracy can come from the inside and outside the country.

Guilherme Casarões does not consult, works, has actions or receives funding from any company or organization that can benefit from the publication of this article and has not revealed any relevant bond beyond its academic position.

Source: Terra

Rose

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