After the noises that increased the rates the day before, the Brazilian curve of interest immediately took low adjustments on Friday, in particular in the contracts between 2027 and 2029, in a session marked by the slight decrease in treasure yields abroad.
In the late afternoon, the rate of the interfination deposit in January 2026 – one of the most short -term liquids – was 14.745%, compared to the adjustment of 14.813% of the previous session. The rate for January 2027 scored 14.01%, down 18 points compared to 14.188%.
Among the longer contracts, the rate for January 2031 was 13.76%, down 80 points compared to 13.843%of the previous adjustment and the contract for January 2033 had a rate of 13.8%, compared to 13.852%.
Thursday, the speculation that the government would have prepared a spending package to exploit the popularity of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in 2026, the year of the elections, with measures that could include a possible re -adaptation of Bolsa Familia next year, has given strength to the rates of DIS. The perception was that the measures would compromise Brazilian tax adjustment.
Although the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, denied the government’s studies to rearrange the Bolsa Familia and insisted on the fact that his folder works only in punctual tax measures “to conform to the tax target”, the agents closed the noise and incorporated prizes in the curve.
On Friday, however, with relatively emptied news, the rates from January 2027 to January 2028 were low in the morning, among the adjustments on the eve of the day before. This stretch of the curve was precisely the day most affected by noise, corresponding to the interval in which investors have been calibrated in recent weeks, for the beginning of the interest cutting cycle in Brazil – the step at the end of the current elevation cycle.
The retreat of the treasures abroad, after the dissemination of weak data from the residential construction sector in the United States, was another factor for the retreat of tax rates.
Near the closure, with already reduced liquidity, the rates renewed some minimums in Brazil. At 16:03, the rate of for January 2027 reached 14%, a lower level of session and low points of 19 bases compared to the adaptation of the eve.
Near the closing of Friday, the curve evaluated 60% of the Selic speed maintenance probability in June, compared to 40% probability of lifting 25 basis points. Selic is currently 14.75% per year.
In the B3 Copom Options market, the prices of Thursday-the last update was 55.00% of Selic’s maintenance probability, 38.00% of the chances of 25 points based on and 6.00% of the possibility of increasing by 50 basis points.
At 4:38 pm, the Ten Years Performance-Global Reference of the Treasury for Investment-Recid Decisions 2 Points Based to 4.436%.
Source: Terra
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