For the economist, Trump’s decisions bring irreversible consequences to the United States
After 26 years of teaching at the University of Chicago, José Alexandre Scheinkman He went to Princeton, won the teacher’s chair. Today, the respected economist and professor of Columbia, in New York, participates in numerous special projects with each other, is a senior coordinator of the Amazon project of 2030 and collaborates in the sewing of COP-30 This happens in November in Brazil.
For over 50 years they live United StatesThe Carioca looked carefully at ten presidents, from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama, from Jimmy Carter to Donald Trump. And at the beginning of the second government of Trump, he is worried about the measures that are negatively changing the image of the United States.
In this conversation with the EstadãoHe says that Trump’s decisions are apparently taken in the momentum of the moment and that there is nobody in his surroundings capable of advising him measures which can influence both commercial partners and American partners.
Is there a strategy in the measurements that Trump is taking?
No. Trump is not strategic. It is the type of person who does things at the last moment. He does the things he thinks are more advantageous for him.
For him or for the United States?
At that moment (decision -making process), imagine being the best for him.
What is the difference from Trump from the first term for this?
In the first government there were some personalities who somehow managed to stop the most radical and risky things. Apparently, in this government, there is no one who does it. “Raw” Trump, the Raw Trump has not entered any filter. A president has consultants (consultants), who can say: “Look, this is not a good idea”. Sometimes they are wrong, but they can at least speak. Trump took all the people who had opposed him, or in front of his ideas in the previous government, or left them out, or in a certain sense to make persecution.
Do you think the decline of the American empire is starting?
This process triggered by Trump will cost the United States, even if inverted. Mark Meatary (Prime Minister of Canada) said: “The United States are not a reliable country. We can no longer think of the United States as an ally”. I think this is a permanent thing.
What is the possibility of Trump to attract industries in the United States, people who invest, with the implosion promoted in international commercial relations?
This moves the investor, because nobody knows what Trump will want tomorrow. In the previous period, Trump proposed and signed a new treaty with Canada and Mexico. At the beginning of this government he said that this treaty was not valid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9MHQ51GDPW
Is it difficult to reverse these measures?
I think someone came to him and explained, for example, that in winter, in the United States, especially in the north, the food has been imported. You cannot grow tomatoes in December in New Jersey, which is the state that provides tomatoes in the summer for this region. The great producer is Mexico. Someone must have said: “Look, the food price will increase”. So he took it. He took part in the import tax he had put in the car, in pieces. If you are an investor, a factory, you want to plan and you can’t. Because you don’t know what price you will have to sell your car to reproduce costs, including rates.
Speaking of COP-30. Brazil has everything to go on in terms of sustainability, clean energy. Does this confusion of Trump puts himself in the middle?
The United States will be completely out. They will not sign anything that the policeman decides.
Are American states independent of doing it?
Not to sign the treaties that can even implement compatible policies, but it is not possible that a state establishes a treaty with other countries. But, on the other hand, I think this idea of unanimity in which the COP works is very complicated. I think the departure from the United States can even help him. I have American colleagues who worry about this theme and say to me: “Look, with the departure of the United States, other countries will have the opportunity to create a sort of climatic coalition”. This coalition will probably not include the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia.
Do you think you include China?
China is determined to be what we call adult in the room. I think China is trying to participate in these conversations.
How do you see Brazil in this?
I think Brazil is very well. But when a country like the United States is going seriously economically, it will affect the entire economy. People think about international trade as a competition. It is not. When a country is fine, the other countries are better. This is even more important when the economy is exceptional as the American. So I think there will be problems with the fall of the activity in the United States. There are banks that affirm that the probability of recession is greater than 50% and others that affirm that it is greater than three bedrooms. Pessimism is widespread. They could all be wrong, but obviously you must have a certain fear.
What is your expectation for COP-30?
I think it will be very important. Brazil is bringing new themes to the policeman, for example the problem of tropical forests, in which Brazil has great potential to help solve the climatic problem. The work I did with Juliana Assunção, of Puc-Rio, and with Lars Hansen, professor at the University of Chicago, who won the Nobel Prize a few years ago (2013), shows the great potential of the Amazon, but which is transmitted to other tropical forests. This is one of the new points that Brazil will lead to the COP, which is based on good science.
Source: Terra
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