Israeli leaders can expect a chain reaction to begin on Friday that leads to an agitation that overturns the Islamic Republic, writes Amir Azimi
In addition to the declared objective of Israel to destroy what calls Iran’s nuclear threat with his attacks on Friday, Benjamin Netanyahu has a wider goal: the change in the regime in Tehran.
In this scenario, unprecedented attacks can be expected to start a chain reaction that leads to a sensation that overturns the Islamic Republic.
On Friday evening he said in a declaration that “the time has come for the Iranian people to join around their flag and their historical legacy, defending their freedom of evil and oppressive regime”.
Many Iranians are dissatisfied with the situation of the economy, the lack of freedom of expression, the rights of women and the rights of minorities.
Israel’s attack represents a real threat to Iran’s leadership.
The attacks killed the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), the head of the staff of the Armed Forces and many other high -level heads of IrGC and the Israeli attack is not yet finished. Iran reacted in the afternoon, with the revolutionary guard who said that he performed attacks against “dozens of targets, military centers and aerial bases”.
The situation rapidly worsened and after the missile attacks of the retaliation of Iran, Netanyahu said: “More things are coming.”
The most leaders of Iran could be objective.
Israel can calculate that attacks and murders can disturb the regime and pave the way for popular revolt.
At least this is what Netanyahu expects.
But this is a bet – a great bet.
There is no evidence that this chain reaction will start first, but even if it is started, it is not clear where this process can drive.
Those who have the greatest power in Iran are the people who control the armed forces and the economy, and most of that power are in the hands of the IRGC row and some other united organs.
They do not need to take a coup because they are already in power and can take Iran with a more contrasting direction.
Another possible result could be the collapse of the regime followed by the fall of Iran in chaos.
With a population of about 90 million people, events in the country would have a huge impact throughout the Middle East.
The desired result from Israel seems to be a revolt that ends with a friendly force that takes control, but could an important question be the alternative here?
The Iranian opposition forces have been highly fragmented in recent years and there are no clear options in this sense.
After the disturbances of 2022, known as the “Woman Life Freedom” movement, which took most of Iran as a storm, some opposition groups tried to form a wide range of groups and activists against the Islamic Republic.
But this did not last long due to the differences in their opinions on those who drive the coalition and what the regime’s format will be after the reversal of the current one.
Israel leaders can see some of these groups or characters as favorite alternatives.
For example, the former Iranian heir Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah of Iran, who was overturned in the 1979 Islamic revolution in the country.
He lives in exile and has actively tried to influence foreign players to support his cause.
He also visited Israel in recent years.
Although it has gained popularity between some Iranians, it is not clear whether this can quickly become a force for the change in the regime.
There is also Mujahideen-e Khalq (Mek), a group of exiled opposition that supports the reversal of the Islamic Republic, but is against the return to the monarchy.
Founded as a leftist Muslim group, previously opposed the Shah.
After the revolution, Mek went to Iraq and joined Saddam Hussein in the early 80s during the war against Iran, who made him unpopular among many Iranians.
The group is still active and has friends in the United States, some close to the Donald Trump group.
However, it seems to have less influence on the White House than during the first term of Trump, when high American employees, including Mike Pompeo, John Bolton and Rudy Giuliani, participated in the Mek meetings and held a support speech.
There are also other political forces, from those who want to establish a secular democracy to those looking for a parliamentary monarchy and so on.
It could be too early to analyze the full extension of the attacks on Friday, but during the filming between Iran and Israel last year, there were no obvious evidence that the Iranians saw these situations as an opportunity to overturn the regime.
However, these events were not even close to the level of destruction of the attacks on Friday.
The goal of Iran
We must also ask what the final goal of Iran is now.
Despite having raised several goals in Israel, Iran does not seem to have many good options.
Some may consider that the safest production must continue to be involved in negotiations with the United States and try to reduce the climb from there.
But returning to the negotiations, as requested Trump, is a difficult choice for Iran leaders, since this would mean that they have accepted the defeat.
Another option is to continue with retaliation attacks against Israel.
This seems to be the most desired option by them.
This is what Iranian leaders have promised to their supporters, but even if the attacks continue, this can invite other attacks from Israel.
In the past, Tehran has threatened to attack bases, embassies and points of interest in US interests for the region.
But this is not easy to obtain and attack that the United States would put them directly in the dispute, which is what Iran wants.
None of these options is easy for either of the two sides and their consequences are difficult to predict.
It is still soon to know what the consequences will be and we will only know when the situation will be stabilized.
Source: Terra
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