Faced with the escalation of the tension in the institutional relationship between Brazil and the United States, analysts and export sectors do not bet on a rapid understanding of the new rates on Brazilian products, even with a certain loss for both sides. With the execution of the Bolsonaro clan to destabilize the criminal proceedings against the former president with an American pressure, Alexandre de Moraes imposes restrictive measures to Jair Bolsonaro. And Donald Trump reacted on the same day.
Faced with the escalation of the tension in the institutional relationship between Brazil and the United States, analysts and export sectors do not bet on a rapid understanding of the new rates on Brazilian products, even with a certain loss for both sides. With the execution of the Bolsonaro clan to destabilize the criminal proceedings against the former president with an American pressure, Alexandre de Moraes imposes restrictive measures to Jair Bolsonaro. And Donald Trump reacted on the same day.
Raquel Miura, correspondent RFI in Brasilia.
The week ended with Jair Bolsonaro with an electronic ankle, collected at home, while the Donald Trump government prohibited the United States of Alexandre de Moraes and other ministers of the Brazilian Supreme Court. And the Fury of Trumpland, after Eduardo Bolsonaro’s journey to the US lands to free the prison father, generates expectations of a new anti-Brazil package.
However, the political analysis is that the restrictive measures of Bolsonaro show that the assault of the family was a foot of the former president. “There was the widespread perception that the whole country was damaged by the Bolsonaro family”, says the political analyst Diogo Cunha of the Federal University of Pernambuco. “The flag of patriotism, nationalism, sovereignty have given the tray PT and Lula. And the institutions also reacted. Therefore, without a doubt, this has significantly worsened the situation of the former president,” he adds.
“Eduardo Bolsonaro’s performance is another step in the politicalization and pressure process that they want to do for the judiciary, trying to show strength, including the help of the greatest power in the world, which can really damage Brazil. Now, of course, this has not worked, on the contrary”, concludes Cunha.
Losses of U $ 1 billion
The current crisis has giant reflections in the economy. The AEB data, the Brazil Foreign Trade Association show that a decrease in exports has already been announced in the order of $ 1 billion since the 50% rate was announced on everything Brazil sells to the United States.
“We started to see in the statistics, now in July, that there is a drop in Brazilian exports about $ 100 million a day. This means, so far, a fall of at least $ 1 billion. Basically, all those sectors that have long -term agreements will be affected because there is a sudden change. Brazil (AEB).
“The expectation was that this 50% rate will be reversed in the short term, but now the environment is more loaded, with declarations both on the American and Brazilian side. The political question is weighing more than the technique. So this rate must last for some time. It could also change from one hour to the other, but the political scenario underlines that it will not be in the short term”.
To reduce damage to Brazilian entrepreneurs, the leader of the association defends negotiations and not reciprocity. And he says that the replacement of the markets in the current scenario is not as easy as many preacing. “Everyone is looking for alternative markets, Brazil, the United States, China, Europe. All countries. Therefore it is very difficult, it is very large competition. And in search of alternative markets they can take time. Depending on the product, three months, six months, one year and sometimes it will not have a result,” he said.
Joint and non -mobile negotiations
Suppose openly that the motto of the Bolsonarist clan today is “Our family above all “Eduardo Bolsonaro has generated a lot of debate on social networks with his statements. He also said, in an interview with Cnn, That “Trump does not withdraw before Alexandre de Moraes. And if there is a series of devastated land, at least I will have sold these toga dictators”.
To avoid devastated land, Espm’s international analyst Alexandre Ueara says that the path is negotiation, but the United States has not forced a large part of the world to do. “Negotiating Bilaterally is playing the game according to the rules of Donald Trump. It will always have an advantage for the United States in these bilateral negotiations because they are the greatest power in the world, despite the Chinese economy. So focusing on bilateral trade with Trump would be the worst of all worlds,” he says.
Since more than three years have remained to finish the president’s mandate, the expert suggests the convergence of the interests of other countries to deal with the commercial instability generated by so many rates. “If states represent 26 % of the world economy, we can examine the perspective that other countries represent about 74 % of the world GDP. The United States are threatening Japan, China, Brazil, Europe, among others. And these countries together have much more strength in negotiations. A collective action can have more this rate of reciprocity,” said Ueara.
Discriminatory commercial policy
The use of commercial rates as a political weapon to defend the allies and American companies, such as large technicians, has reached a climb that has generated criticism all over the world. “It is in no way the foreign policy that was implemented by the Trump government has convergence with the rules of international trade. And this second term Trump was implemented by an absolutely discriminatory foreign policy, a serious non -compliance with the United States before the most important principle of the World Commerce Organization (OMC), which is the principle of non -discrimination not of non -discrimination”.
Portella underlines, however, that this American turning point is not from now on. “The first administration of Donald Trump has already reported this posture that questions multilateralism. But we jurists and researchers had the hope that in a change of government this theme would have been hosted. And it was not. The government of Joe Biden did not take a new posture in front of the WOP. This has a new sign that is actually a state policy and not the Trump government.”
Source: Terra
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