Families in power in Cambodia and Thailand have been allied a long time ago – until the Cambodian leader published a conversation that exhibits the Thai Prime Minister
Cambodia and Thailand have a history of occasional conflicts.
The two countries share a long forest border with the areas claimed on both sides. There have been serious shots in the past: in 2008 and 2011, the clashes left 40 deaths.
However, these episodes have been quickly contained.
Also recently, in May, after an accident in which a Cambodian soldier was killed, both sides showed interest in avoiding more violence, with meetings among the commanders of the army of each country to reduce tension.
But last Thursday (24/7), the situation exploded.
At least 33 soldiers and civil soldiers were killed while thousands of Thai and Cambodians have been displaced by the beginning of the fighting.
Saturday (26/7), the President of the United States Donald Trump said he had held conversations with the leaders of both countries, which would have sought a “ceased immediate fire” after the border clashes.
The provisional prime minister of Thailand, Phumtham Wechayachai, confirmed “that, in principle, the Thai part agreed with the ceasefire”.
But why did this border clash – which started after five Thai soldiers were injured in the explosion of an earthly mine on Wednesday (23/7) – has become something much bigger?
The relationships between the two countries were significantly deteriorated last month, when the Senior leader of Cambodia, former Prime Minister Hun Sen, caused a great embarrassment to the Thai Minister of the Lake Shinawatra by losing a telephone conversation between them beyond the border in dispute.
In the conversation, Paetongtarn called him “uncle” and criticized one of his military commanders, causing public indignation. Since then, he has been suspended from the position of Prime Minister and the Constitutional Court of Thailand has analyzed a petition for his dismissal.
It is not clear why Hun Sen decided to do it, breaking a close personal relationship between his families who had lasted decades.
Many people have criticized the latter for his conversation with Hun Sen. seemed to believe he could solve the differences by appealing to his friendship with his father, the former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
In the past, this friendship was used by Thaksin’s opponents to accuse him of putting the interests of Cambodia above those of Thailand.
In 2014, when a government led by Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck, was deposed by a military coup, Hun Sen allowed dozens of supporters to look for a refuge in Cambodia.
The two countries also collaborated in darker areas.
Last November, Thailand sent six Cambodian dissidents, together with a small child, again in Cambodia, where they were immediately arrested. Everyone had been recognized by the United Nations as refugees.
By 2020, a young Thai activist who had escaped in Cambodia, Wancharm Satsaksit, was kidnapped and disappeared, presumably by the hands of the Thai agents.
And the murder in the light of the January day of an opposition leader in the center of Bangkok, Thailand, was also seen by activists following this understanding among the safety services of both countries.
In this context, the loss of the conversation of the latter conversation apparently brought the Shinawatra family completely unprepared.
Both Thaksin’s reactions and Finally reveal a feeling of betrayal. This led to a war of words increasingly bitter between the two countries.
But they are not just words.
The Thai police also began to investigate powerful corporate characters from Cambodia, presumably linked to playing centers and illegal immigrants, while trade between countries, which is worth billions of dollars a year, has been interrupted.
In the border itself, there is a high risk of more serious clashes between the two armies.
But instead of withdrawing, Hun Sen of Cambodia seems to have taken the opportunity to intensify the rhetoric against Thailand and the Shinawatra family in particular.
He claims to have secret documents that would incriminate Thaksin – documents that, according to him, could even demonstrate that the former deposit has insulted the Thai monarchy, a crime that causes a strong prison sentence in Thailand.
The Thai government replied expelling the Cambodian ambassador on Wednesday and inviting his correspondent, preparing the land for the last comparison.
In both countries, leadership with strength and trust to yield.
The current Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet is an inexperienced son of an authoritarian former leader – Hun Sen,
On the Thai side, the government of the Thaksin party was facing a stagnant economy and suffers from the threat of US punitive rates. It cannot afford to show weakness in front of Cambodia.
Cambodia must also face a weakened economy.
He has never completely recovered from the pandemic and tourism – pillar of his economy – has been compromised by the absence of Chinese visitors, who avoid the country for fear of being kidnapped and forced to work in the scam centers.
And – just like in Thailand – now there is the threat of US punitive rates that further affect the economy.
But both countries have experienced politicians, such as Hun Sen and Thaksin, who can almost certainly certainly find a way out.
What remains so far a mystery is because Hun Sen has decided to break this friendship and turn on this conflict.
Perhaps it was Thailand’s decision to press the scam centers this year, or Thaksin’s ambition to legalize the game, threatening the profitable Cambodia casino sector.
Or maybe it was simpler: a Machiavellian game of one of the most cunning politicians of Asia to abandon Ally Thaksin, who has lost much of his influence on Thailand while he simultaneously strengthens his nationalist credentials in the eyes of his own people.
Source: Terra
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