Electrobras and Eneva are winners in a volatile scenario of spot prices, says BTG

Electrobras and Eneva are winners in a volatile scenario of spot prices, says BTG

Electrobras and Eneva are the main potential winners among energy generators in front of the scenario of electrical prices that are increasingly volatile in the short -term Brazilian market, according to BTG suffering analysts.




In a report, the bench team reveals the recent change in the behavior of the price of the energy energy in Brazil, after a series of improvements made by the organs in the sector in recent years with the aim of making prices more adherent to the functioning of the Brazilian electrical system.

These changes, as a higher risk aversion to critical hydrology scenarios, have made short -term energy prices more supported in Brazil and show more volatility during the day. This scenario contrasts with long -term energy prices, which are depressed due to factors such as the excessive power of energy in the country after a strong expansion of the generator park, in particular sun.

The recent trend of prices affects the logic of the generators’ business, accustomed to selling all the relaxed energy of their portfolio to ensure the predictability in cash and reduce risks.

According to BTG, the highest spot prices now offer greater benefits to companies that can operate in the “merchant” logic, that is, selling energy in the short -term market, where it is not possible to have prices or have great visibility.

“The long -term winners in this volatile scenario are the ones who know how to deal with it and those with resources that should help stabilize the country’s energy system”, analysts write Antonio Junaira, Gisele Pussy and Maria Schutz.

“Not everyone can choose the option of” becoming a merchant “in compromise. Electrobras can. Not all players have experience, projects and management to add thermal capacity to the system. Eneva has,” they add.

The BTG team estimates that if the average energy prices reach R $ 200/MWH in the next five and a half years, the performance of electrobra dividends “can reach 18% (an average).

Eneva’s fair value can increase by 18% (or R $ 3/action) by a great perspective of hiring in the government planned capacity auction for 2026.

Source: Terra

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