Genial/Quaest research published this Thursday 9 shows that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has an advantage over all possible opponents in the 2026 elections. The PT member leads in all first round scenarios, scoring between 35% and 43% of intentions depending on the list of candidates.
If the elections were held today, Lula would beat all his rivals even in the second round. The president, however, has no more than half of the voting intentions in any of the scenarios due to the number of undecided voters and those who say they will vote blank, invalid, or not at all.
Research shows that the current president has increased his lead over the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), considered at this time the main opposition figure. Tarcísio declares that he will not get involved in the Palácio do Planalto dispute and will seek re-election to the state government.
Sao Paulo’s chief executive had narrowed Lula’s lead until May, when the result was a technical draw of 41% to 40%, with the president numerically ahead.
Since then, however, the trend has been reversed and Lula has gained ground to reach the current 45% of votes against Tarcísio’s 33%. The president’s 12 percentage point (pp) lead over the governor is the largest recorded this year.
Lula swung upward with a margin of error of two points, while the governor of Sao Paulo swung negatively at the same level. Another 19% declared that they will vote blank or nothing and there are 3% who are undecided.
On Wednesday 8th the Chamber of Deputies imposed a defeat on the Lula government and annulled the provisional measure with alternative collection measures to the greater increase in the tax on financial transactions (IOF). Lula’s allies attributed the defeat to Tarcísio, who called deputies asking them to vote against the measure; the governor denies any involvement in the affair.
Quaest personally interviewed 2,004 Brazilians aged 16 or older between October 2 and 5. The confidence level is 95%.
The most competitive opponent against Lula at the moment is Ciro Gomes (PDT). The president would beat the former Ceará deputy by 41% to 32%, a nine point difference.
On the other hand, Lula’s largest advantage is 23 percentage points: he would beat the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSD), with 45% to 22%. Next, the president has a 15-point lead against Romeu Zema (47% to 32%), Ronaldo Caiado (46% to 31%) and Eduardo Bolsonaro (46% to 31%).
Quaest also measured spontaneous voting intentions for the president. Unlike other scenarios, in this case you are not presented with a list of candidate names.
Lula was mentioned by 19% of respondents and former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is not eligible, by 6%. Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Tarcísio and other names combined were mentioned by 1% each. 69% were undecided, and 3% responded that they would vote blank, invalid, or not at all.
Source: Terra
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