Check the calculations of the UFMG Mathematics Department and find out how your team is doing in this Brasileirão!
The Department of Mathematics of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) published this weekend its updated list with the title chances of the Serie A teams of the Brazilian Championship. And also ranking for the Libertadores and risk of relegation. As for the top of the table, the study believes that only seven clubs still have a mathematical chance of winning the title. However, four of them — Mirassol, Bahia, Botafogo and Fluminense — combined, tthere is just over 0.5% chance. The real fight for the title is therefore concentrated between the top three. Mwith a changeça significant after the last round.
After all, with the victory over Juventude on Saturday, in the final match, Palmeiras opened with a three-point advantage over Flamengo (58 to 55). Therefore, he jumped to 69% chance of becoming champion. As a result, Flamengo, who already had more than 50% chance in the previous rounds, now has 25.1%. Cruzeiro, who runs on the outside. However, it only appears with 5.4%. He has 52 points and one more game. But these numbers should change in the next two rounds. Especially because on Sunday, at the Maracanã, there is Flamengo x Palmeiras, which seems like an anticipated championship final. But for now these are the numbers.
Worth remembering: the The UFMG Mathematics Department is a point of reference regarding the odds of football tournaments in Brazil.
Possibility of title
Palmeiras – 69.0%
Flamengo – 25.1%
Cruzeiro – 5.4%
Mirassol – 0.20%
Bahia – 0.20%
Botafogo – 0.018%
Fluminense – 0.008%
Towards Freedom-2026
For the Libertadores 2026, the UFMG Mathematics Department currently considers the top six finishers as a virtual ranking, as these are the places currently guaranteed to Brazil. With this basis Palmeiras already has a 100% chance of qualifying. Flamengo, with 99.98%, can mathematically confirm itself with another three points in the next rounds. Cruzeiro also appear virtually guaranteed in the 2026 competition.
The good fight therefore focuses on the three remaining vacancies. And, according to calculations, all teams – with exceptiontion of Sport and Youth – StillThey have some chances, from Mirassol (with more than 84%) to Vitória, with a paltry 0.003%.
Opportunities for the Libertadores
Palmeiras – Already classified
Flamengo – 99.98%
Cruise – 99.62%
Mirasol – 84.8%
Bahia -83.0%
Botafogo -57.2%
Fluminense – 30.5%
Sao Paulo – 17.6%
Bragantino -8.5%
Ceará – 5.9%
Vasco da Gama – 3.3%
Corinthians – 2.8%
Athletic – 2.6%
International – 2.4%
Gremio – 1.6%
Santos – 0.27%
Fortaleza – 0.020%
Victory – 0.003%
In the struggle not to fall
At the bottom of the table, Palmeiras, Flamengo, Cruzeiro, Mirassol and Bahia are not at risk of relegation. But Botafogo, Fluminense and San Paolo would only fall if they lost all their matches from now on – What it is highly unlikely. The greatest risk is for Sport, with 98.6% relegated, according to UFMG. But there are great teams in danger. Santos is a case. First, outside of Z4, the risk is about 30%. In short, every defeat puts him on the chopping block.
Risk of relegation
Sports – 98.6%
Young people – 86.6%
Victory -80.1%
Fortaleza – 71.8%
Santos – 29.9%
International -6.7%
Gremio -6.7%
Athletic – 6.0%
Corinthians – 5.4%
Vasco da Gama – 4.6%
Ceará – 2.2%
Bragantino – 1.0%
Sao Paulo – 0.26%
Fluminense- 0.090%
Botafogo – 0.001%
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Source: Terra
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