Analysis by the Mathematics Department reveals that Flamengo has the advantage over UFMG. Also check the projections for the Libertadores
The mathematics department of the Federal University of Minas Gerais has released an update on the chances of winning the title. And also the standings for the Libertadores and the risk of relegation after the match on Monday 10/21 which closed the 29th round of the Brazilian Serie A. But with something new: Flamengo, after the 3-2 victory over Palmeiras, becomes the big favourite, with 49.7%, against Palmeiras’ 47.4%.
The curious thing is that Palmeiras remains in first place in the standings, with the same 61 points as Flamengo. But with one more victory. However, there are factors that make UFMG consider Flamengo more possibilities. Verdão still faces Cruzeiro (3rd, home) and Mirassol (4th, away) and does not have a good record against Top 6 teams. Flamengo has already faced Cruzeiro and, like Verdão, plays Mirassol away from home, which leaves the team in the balance. Also Rubro-Negro currently has a better table. Cruzeiro, even with a 2.6% chance, could come into contention if they manage to beat Palmeiras in the next round.
Possibility of title
FLAMENGO – 49.7%
PALMS – 47.4%
CRUZEIRO – 2.6%
MIRASSOL – 0.23%
BAHIA – 0.022%
BOTAFOGO – 0.002%
LIBERATOR
As for Libertadores-2026, Palmeiras has already entered the group with a guaranteed place. But Flamengo is mathematically ahead in the score which guarantees them the Top 6 at the end of the Brazilian championship. Cruzeiro, Mirassol and Bahia are very close to obtaining the passport. Compared to the G6, therefore, the fight really seems to be for last place. But there is one important factor: the UFMG does the math considering six vacancies. But there is a real possibility that Brazil has seven or even eight vacancies, which could expand the G6 into the G8.
PALMS – 100%
FLAMENGO – 100%
CRUISE – 99.92%
MIRASSOL – 97.0%
BAHIA – 84.8%
BOTAFOGO – 65.8%
FLUMINENSE – 25.5%
VASCO DA GAMA – 11.8%
SAO PAULO – 5.1%
INTERNATIONAL – 2.6%
BRAGANTINO – 1.9%
GREMIO-1.8%
CORINTHIANS – 1.6%
CEARÁ – 1.2%
SANTOS – 0.55%
ATHLETIC – 0.52%
WIN – 0.007%
Risk of relegation
In case of relegation, Santos saw the risk increase after the home defeat against Vitória, direct competitor, this Monday. But one factor weighs in Santos’ favor. Even with the same score as Vitória – first inside Z4 – the Fish there is one less match and a more favorable calendar. But what should complicate things? This late match is actually against Palmeiras. Anyway, pure cava!
SPORTS – 99.81%
FORTALEZA – 90.7%
YOUNG PEOPLE – 89.4%
VICTORY – 68.3%
SANTOS – 17.6%
ATHLETIC – 10.9%
CEARÁ – 5.5%
INTERNATIONAL – 4.5%
CORINTHIANS – 4.4%
BRAGANTINO – 3.8%
GREMIO-3.4%
SAO PAULO – 1.4%
VASCO DA GAMA – 0.21%
FLUMINENSE – 0.027%
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Serie A
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Source: Terra
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