The advance of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter on a level lower than market expectations (+0.4% against expectations of +0.7% on a quarterly basis) was justified by economists mainly by the revision of the numbers precedents by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which messed up its calculations.
Net of this effect, the performance of the local economy was appreciated, reaching an all-time record level, with an emphasis on investments, while the decline in agriculture was the main negative data. Even so, they said, the nuances in the numbers seem to point to a continuation of the slowdown seen in recent quarters, which is cause for concern.
See comments from financial market professionals:
ALBERTO RAMOS, DIRECTOR OF MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH FOR LATIN AMERICA AT GOLDMAN SACHS
“Growth in the third quarter was generalized, with positive contributions from the main economic sectors on the supply side (services and industry), and on the demand side with positive impulses from the three main components of domestic demand. the increase in imports outpaced the solid increase in exports.
Given the major data revisions, our real GDP growth forecast for 2022 has risen to 3.2% (from 2.9%). In 2023 we expect the economy to grow by 1.2%”.
LUCAS MAYNARD, SANTANDER ECONOMIST
“Despite strong third-quarter GDP, the effects of tighter monetary policy started to show throughout the quarter. Indeed, we saw a significant contribution to growth from non-cyclical segments such as rentals, utilities and information services (which benefited heavily from tax cuts over the period), while cyclical activities such as manufacturing and retail trade had already shown the first impacts of a tight monetary stance. Our baseline scenario forecasts growth of 0.7%”.
LAIZ CARVALHO, ECONOMIST FOR BRAZIL AT BNP PARIBAS
“On the demand side, the investment data, gross fixed capital formation, was quite surprising. There was 2.8% progress quarterly, which means we had 5% growth year-over-year. It’s quite a lot Important And on the supply side, we already expected services to be the main driver, and also a recovery in industry, but the main fact is agriculture, with a decline in almost 1% in the quarterly comparison, quite strong in this sector. in general, GDP was slightly lower in the “headline” and the composition was good, with the exception of agriculture. We still expect growth in the last quarter of this Our growth outlook is 3% for 2022, with growth of 0.5% next year.”
THE CITI TEAM FOR LATIN AMERICA LEAD BY DIRK WILLER
“The result confirms that an economic slowdown is already underway, given the much stronger expansion observed in previous quarters. The expansion continues to be driven by domestic demand, with an emphasis on private consumption and investment, with the contribution negative external demand.On the supply side, the manufacturing sector and especially the services sector were the main drivers of the quarterly expansion.Overall, we maintain our view that annual GDP growth in 2022 is expected to be around to 2.9%, with a sharp slowdown in 2023 to 0.3%”.
JOÃO SAVIGNON, ECONOMIST OF KÍNITRO CAPITAL
“GDP was slightly lower than really expected, but we had highlighted the uncertainty around these numbers at the margins, due to the (expected) IBGE revision in activity.
We cannot say that the result was bad. At the margin, a little below what we expected, but taking into account all these weighting elements and the new series line-ups, it is totally within what we can expect.”
ROBERTO PADOVANI, CHIEF ECONOMIST OF BANCO BV
“Brazil is feeling the impacts of stimulus withdrawal around the world. Not just here in Brazil. Here in Brazil, the story is basically one of monetary tightening that traditionally comes late in the economy. So, the story of the third quarter is one of a world slowing due to the fading of monetary stimulus, and also in Brazil. We think this suggests stagnation in the fourth quarter and more moderate growth next year.”
SÉRGIO VALE, ECONOMIST OF MB ASSOCIADOS
“It has returned to expectations. There have been strong upward revisions in the first half, I think there will be a consolidation of a GDP this year that will grow to around 3%, even a little more. But there is already this perception that the slowdown has started to happen.”
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Source: Terra
Camila Luna is a writer at Gossipify, where she covers the latest movies and television series. With a passion for all things entertainment, Camila brings her unique perspective to her writing and offers readers an inside look at the industry. Camila is a graduate from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) with a degree in English and is also a avid movie watcher.
