The market raises its HICP forecast for next year to 5.17%

Estimates for higher official inflation this year have dropped from 5.79% to 5.76%, according to Boletim Focus

BRASÍLIA – Expectations for the HICP – index of inflation oficial – from 2023 it went from 5.08% to 5.17% in the Boletim Focus do Central bank published this Monday 19. In the case of 2024, the projection has continued at 3.50% for the eighth consecutive week. In the case of 2022, in turn, the HICP hike estimate has cooled down from 5.79% to 5.76%.

The medians in Focus for official inflation in 2022 and 2023 are above the target ceiling for these horizons (5.0% and 4.75%, in order), indicating three years of non-compliance with the mandate head of the Central Bank. For 2024 and 2025, the market forecast is above the central target of 3%, but below the ceiling of 4.50%.

Currently, the focus of monetary policy is on the years 2023 and 2024. But the BC has emphasized the horizon six quarters ahead, currently the second quarter of 2024.

To the copom of this monththe BC updated its inflation projections with estimates of 6% in 2022, 5% in 2023 and 3% for 2024. The collegiate kept the Selic at 13.75% annually for the third consecutive time.

GDP

This Monday’s Focus Bulletin showed stability in the growth scenario for Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022. The median for GDP growth in 2022 continued at 3.05%, versus 2.80%. The estimate of GDP expansion in 2023 has gone from 0.75% to 0.79%.

The Focus Report also showed a change in the projection of GDP growth in 2024, from 1.70% to 1.67%. For 2025, the median has been held at 2%.

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Source: Terra

Camila

Camila Luna is a writer at Gossipify, where she covers the latest movies and television series. With a passion for all things entertainment, Camila brings her unique perspective to her writing and offers readers an inside look at the industry. Camila is a graduate from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) with a degree in English and is also a avid movie watcher.