Researchers continue to unravel the impacts of climate change, which go far beyond increased temperatures and extreme weather events. A recent study raises a worrying hypothesis: the heat of the sun may be directly influencing the occurrence of earthquakes on Earth.
Published by Japanese scientists and the computer scientist Matheus Henrique Saldanha (USP) last Tuesday (4), the study reinforces a line of research started in 2022, which already pointed to a correlation between solar activity and terrestrial earthquakes, but without identifying the exact mechanisms of this relationship. Now researchers suggest that increasing temperatures may be playing an active role in this process.
Computational modeling and new evidence
The team analyzed historical earthquake series using advanced mathematical and computational models, correlating this data with variations in terrestrial surface temperature and fluctuations in solar activity. The results indicate that the inclusion of thermal factors has improved the accuracy of predictions, especially in low depth earthquakes.
“Solar heat induces changes in atmospheric temperature, which in turn can alter physical properties of rocks and the behavior of groundwater. These variations can make certain geological formations more susceptible to fractures and, consequently, to seismic events,” explains Saldanha in an interview with the scientific journal Chaos, who published the study.
Implications for the future of seismology
Although the researchers recognize that the influence of heat may be subtle, the inclusion of climate variables on the predictive models of earthquakes represents a significant advance in seismology. Currently, the forecast needs earthquakes remains one of the biggest scientific challenges, and any additional factor that increases the accuracy of models can save lives.
The findings occur at an alarming moment, with seismic events of great magnitude being recorded globally. This week, an earthquake of magnitude 6 hit Taiwan, reinforcing the urgency of improving the methods of predicting and mitigating natural disasters.
If the impact of climate change on seismic activity is confirmed by future studies, humanity may be facing a new and unexpected side effect of global warming – a warning that the climate crisis may be remodeling the planet in ways we do not yet understand.