One spatial rock of gigantic proportions, larger than the Maracanã stadium, was identified on December 27, 2024. Asteroid 2024 YR4 brought concerns due to its route, which suggests a possibility of collision with the Earth In 2032. According to the initial calculations, there is about 1% chance of impact, which led the main space agencies to intensify the monitoring of the celestial body.
Monitoring by NASA and ESA
Last Wednesday (29), the NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) They issued communications by reinforcing that they closely follow the object. According to NASA“No other large known asteroid has an impact probability above 1% currently”However, experts indicate that new observations can modify this estimate, reducing the risk to 0% as more data are collected.
Asteroid route and possibility of impact
ESA emphasizes that although the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Have a 99% chance of safely passing the planet on December 22, 2032, the possibility of an impact cannot yet be completely discarded. If a collision occurs, it is not yet known exactly what would be the place of impact on the earth’s surface.
Asteroid Characteristics 2024 YR4
THE Asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected by Last alert system for the impact of asteroids on earth (Atlas)in Hurtado Río, Chile. It is estimated that the rock have between 40 and 100 meters wide, size enough to cause considerable damage if it reaches the Earth. According to scientists, heavenly bodies of this magnitude collide with the planet every few thousand years and can generate severe damage in the impact region.
Impact risk updates
Since January 2025, astronomers around the world have been making detailed observations to better understand the trajectory of the asteroid. Currently, he leads the ESA risk listand recent analyzes indicate that the probability of collision is 1.2%. This estimate was corroborated by studies of the Center for Study of Objects near Earth (Cneos)from the NASAand from the Italian Institute Neodys.
Turin impact risk scale
THE Asteroid 2024 YR4 was classified at level 3 of Turin impact risk scale. This table evaluates the objects close to the Earth based on its probability of collision and destructive potential. The scale ranges from 0 to 10, and level 0 represents objects without risk and level 10 corresponds to asteroids whose collision would cause global devastation.
What does level 3 mean?
According to astronomer Marcelo Zurita, president of Paraibana Association of Astronomy (APA)an asteroid classified at level 3 indicates that there is more than 1% chance of impact and that, if it collides Earthmay cause localized destruction. If the asteroid Reaching a densely populated urban area, the consequences could be catastrophic, including a large number of victims and damage to infrastructure.
Possible consequences of a collision
If the Asteroid 2024 YR4 reach the Earththe effects depend on the place of impact. On a city, the destruction could be comparable to that of a large nuclear explosion, devastating miles around. However, if it fell in the ocean, it could generate tsunamis, affecting coastal regions. The precise analysis of these scenarios is still in progress.
How can science avoid an impact?
Currently, scientists from NASA and from ESA They work in strategies to deflect dangerous asteroids. Methods such as kinetic impacts, laser propulsion and controlled explosions are being studied to avoid future collisions. The success of the mission Dartwhich diverted an asteroid in 2022, reinforces the possibility that such techniques can be applied to the 2024 YR4if necessary.
Can the probability of impact change?
Yes. In general, the impact estimate of a asteroid It is larger soon after its discovery, as the initial data is limited. As more observations are made, predictions tend to become more accurate, and the likelihood of collision may decrease considerably. Therefore, the expert’s recommendation is to wait for new updates.
What is the official position of NASA and ESA?
Space agencies keep a cautious but not alarmist tone. THE NASA and the ESA stress that impact probability is still low and that continuous efforts are being made to refine the calculations. If the risk increases, emergency measures may be adopted.
What can we expect in the coming years?
In the coming months, astronomers will continue to collect data on the trajectory of the Asteroid 2024 YR4. If observations confirm a high risk, measures for a possible deviation may be discussed. Until then, the recommendation is to follow the updates of space agencies.
Summary for those in a hurry
- THE Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024 and can collide with the Earth on December 22, 2032.
- THE NASA and the ESA Monitor the trajectory of the object, whose chance of impact is 1.2%.
- With an estimated size between 40 and 100 meters, it can cause significant damage in case of collision.
- Is currently classified at level 3 of the Turin scaleindicating relevant risk, but without global catastrophe.
- Scientists work on methods to avoid impact, including asteroid deviation.
- More observations will be made to refine the forecast and possibly reduce the risk to zero.