MG and DF are starting to see a decline in cases, but other UFs report worsening epidemic, ministry says; The circulation of serotype 3 and the rain in the Northeast fuel uncertainty about the future of the epidemic
After an expected explosion of cases of dengue This year some Brazilian states are starting to notice a slowdown in the contagion curve, according to the budget presented on Tuesday 12th by Ministry of Health. The scenario, however, is quite unequal among the federation units. While Minas Gerais and the Federal District, for example, show signs of record declines, other UFs are starting to see an acceleration in the volume of infected people and declare a state of emergency, which brings a certain degree of uncertainty as to how the the epidemic is expected to behave this year.
“We can say that we are starting a slowdown, knowing that we are in different times of the epidemic. Some states continue to grow, others have already confirmed a decrease,” said Ethel Maciel, secretary of surveillance of health and environment at the Ministry of Health. Hello, an interview with journalists at the press conference.
In total, the country recorded 1,585,385 probable cases of dengue through epidemiological week 10, ending Friday 8. During 2023, there were 1,658,814 notifications. To date, 450 people have died, 2/5 of the total deaths last year (1,094), when the historical record was broken. Another 849 deaths remain under investigation.
According to the Ministry, the increase in serious cases and warning signs is worrying, which now stands at 13,112, more than half of last year’s total (55.47%). Another question mark is how the virus will behave in the Northeast with the arrival of the rainy season, and also the circulation of serotype 3 of the disease, which returned to the country after 15 years.
According to Ethel, for example, while Minas Gerais and the Federal District, which had pushed the curve at the beginning of the year, are recording a decline in notifications, in the South of the country, especially in Santa Catarina and Paraná, the municipalities are starting to declare emergencies. There are decrees of this type in 288 cities.
Ethel warned that there are always delays in notifications, so you need to look carefully at the cumulative result for the tenth epidemiological week, as the numbers tend to be corrected upwards. However, she underlines that, to analyze the scenario, the department also uses statistical models. “We have two consecutive weeks of declines. There is a lot of data from the last week to be entered, but even this data entered will not be higher than that of week 9 (which was once less than 8)“, says the secretary.
It is worth noting, however, that the previous week’s bulletin also showed a decline in cases in weeks 8 and 9 compared to week 7, a trend that was not confirmed when new data was entered into the system. This is because there is a lag in the reporting of cases by municipalities, which causes epidemiologists to consider statistics from recent weeks less reliable and still subject to major changes.
Doubts
The Ministry already predicted and spoke about a possible slowdown a few weeks ago. The main concern was that some federating units were seeing an increase in cases and the department did not know what their weight in the national curve would be.
“I give an example of populous states, we see the slowdown of Minas Gerais and we have the entry of São Paulo. One decreases and the other grows. Apparently, the decrease of Minas is greater than the acceleration of São Paulo,” he said Ethel.
Northeast and serotype 3
There are other factors that increase uncertainty about what might happen this year. After many years, four serotypes of dengue are circulating in the country at the same time. For now, the explosion of cases appears to be driven by types 1 and 2. Genomic surveillance in Brazil is low, experts say.
The reintroduction of type 3 last year in the north of the country, after 15 years, is a latent concern. After all, acquired immunity against dengue is serotype-specific. DENV-3 does not appear to significantly influence the epidemiological scenario for now, but has the ability to worsen it, according to experts and authorities. When will this happen? This year? In 2025? These are still unanswered questions.
To answer this question, the authorities are looking carefully especially at the Northeast. There, apart from Bahia, the national epidemic does not seem to be reflected. “We have this circulation of types 1 and 2. In the Northeast, previous epidemics were due to dengue 1 and 2. In other words, several people have already had the disease and have immunity to these serotypes,” comments Ethel.
“In the Northeast, the rains start as early as March, and the tendency is for the number of cases to increase,” added Márcio Garcia, director of the Department of Public Health Emergencies of the Ministry of Health. The next few weeks should therefore clarify how the epidemic will behave this year.
Source: Terra
Ben Stock is a lifestyle journalist and author at Gossipify. He writes about topics such as health, wellness, travel, food and home decor. He provides practical advice and inspiration to improve well-being, keeps readers up to date with latest lifestyle news and trends, known for his engaging writing style, in-depth analysis and unique perspectives.
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