Anbima and a specialist believe that the pandemic has been one of the factors responsible for the slowdown in the economy
OR Brazilian investor X-Ray 2022, a survey conducted for the fifth consecutive year, showed that the Covid-19 pandemic continued to impact the employment and income of Brazilians. According to the study, 62% of Brazilians experienced a total or partial loss of income and 54% of people needed money for an emergency.
The survey revealed that a third of Brazilians invest in financial products, with particular attention to classes A and B. Furthermore, savings accounts continue to be the most used type of investment, with requests from 23% of the population. Among the reasons for saving, 29% dream of buying their own home, 20% only intend to keep the money or invest it and 8% want to invest in their business.
A study by B3, the Brazilian stock exchange, in turn, showed that between July 2021 and June 2022 there was an entry of 1.25 million of new investors. This fact has caused the number of CPFs to rise by 40%, from 3.15 million to 4.40 million people.
According to ANCORD-certified content creator Daniela Colombo, 2022 was a bit of a troubled year on the stock market due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which left the risk of an economic slowdown as a side effect and put Ibovespa in one challenging scenario due to the drop in raw material prices.
For the expert, another point that struck was also the increase in US interest rates. “To fight inflation. The 10-year US Treasury bond, trading close to 1.5% a year in January, reached levels of 4% a year in October. The highest level was during the crisis of 2008,” he explains.
Colombo points out that political uncertainty, heightened perceptions of fiscal risk in Brazil, and the Russian encroachment on Ukrainian territory were other factors contributing to a roller coaster ride in the Brazilian economy in 2022.” On the other hand part, fixed income was very attractive in 2022 due to the increase in interest rates to control inflation.In 2021, the country recorded interest rates at a record low of 2% and closed the year 2022 with interest rates of 13.75%,” he said.
Expectations for 2023
The assessment, according to the 2023 Analysis Cases, is that there is a more cautious view for Brazilian equities due to global and domestic risks. Colombo also explains that, with interest rates high overseas, the word “inflation” is giving way to “recession,” which may lead to further downward revisions to corporate earnings.
“Europe, which suffers from geopolitical tensions, shortages in natural gas supply and the United States, which ends the year with interest rates at 4.5%, are following the same path of high interest rates and deceleration “, he reported.
Also according to the content creator, with the reopening of China there could be an increase in the prices of raw materials, from which Brazil can benefit, given that it stands out in the export of soybeans, iron ore and oil, which represent 79% of the Brazilian market sales in the Asian country.
“In 2023, it is possible to take advantage of the high level of interest in Brazil through post-fixed and inflation-linked bonds (HICP), and use part of the portfolio for protection, through dollar assets, to ensure an attractive return without adding short-term risk assets,” he says. “In terms of variable income, the scenarios of uncertainty continue due to the global slowdown”.
Colombo concludes by giving advice to beginner investors, starting with profile evaluation: analyzing what your short, medium and long-term goals are; create applications that yield, according to different scenarios, yields linked to interest and inflation; establish a strategy and the assets in which you will invest; give the right weight to each asset.
Source: Terra
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